Duration of lead time in screening for lung cancer

BACKGROUND: Screening for lung cancer has used chest radiography (CR), low dose computed tomography (LDCT) and sputum cytology (SC). Estimates of the lead time (LT), i.e., the time interval from detection of lung cancer by screening to the development of symptoms, have been derived from longitudinal studies of populations at risk, tumor doubling time (DT), the ratio between its prevalence at the first round of screening and its annual incidence during follow-up, and by probability modeling derived from the results of screening trials. OBJECTIVE: To review and update the estimates of LT of lung cancer. METHODS: A non-systematic search of the literature for estimates of LT and screening trials. Search of the reference sections of the retrieved papers for additional relevant studies. Calculation of LTs derived from these studies. RESULTS: LT since detection by CR was 0.8–1.1 years if derived from longitudinal studies; 0.6–2.1 years if derived from prevalence / incidence ratios; 0.2 years if derived from the average tumor DT; and 0.2–1.0 if derived from probability modeling. LT since detection by LDCT was 1.1–3.5 if derived from prevalence / incidence ratios; 3.9 if derived from DT; and 0.9 if derived from probability modeling. LT since detection of squamous cell cancer by SC in persons with normal CR was 1.3–1.5 if derived from prevalence/incidence ratios; and 2.1 years if derived from the DT of squamous cell cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Most estimates of the LT yield values of 0.2–1.5 years for detection by CR; of 0.9–3.5 years for detection by LDCT; and about 2 years or less for detection of squamous cell cancer by SC in persons with normal CR. The heterogeneity of the screening trials and methods of derivation may account for the variability of LT estimates.