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The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil

Public health policies to contain the spread of COVID-19 rely mainly on non-pharmacological measures. Those measures, especially social distancing, are a challenge for developing countries, such as Brazil. In São Paulo, the most populous state in Brazil (45 million inhabitants), most COVID-19 cases...

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Autores principales: Fortaleza, Carlos Magno Castelo Branco, Guimarães, Raul Borges, Catão, Rafael de Castro, Ferreira, Cláudia Pio, Berg de Almeida, Gabriel, Nogueira Vilches, Thomas, Pugliesi, Edmur
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7790416/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33411768
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245051
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author Fortaleza, Carlos Magno Castelo Branco
Guimarães, Raul Borges
Catão, Rafael de Castro
Ferreira, Cláudia Pio
Berg de Almeida, Gabriel
Nogueira Vilches, Thomas
Pugliesi, Edmur
author_facet Fortaleza, Carlos Magno Castelo Branco
Guimarães, Raul Borges
Catão, Rafael de Castro
Ferreira, Cláudia Pio
Berg de Almeida, Gabriel
Nogueira Vilches, Thomas
Pugliesi, Edmur
author_sort Fortaleza, Carlos Magno Castelo Branco
collection PubMed
description Public health policies to contain the spread of COVID-19 rely mainly on non-pharmacological measures. Those measures, especially social distancing, are a challenge for developing countries, such as Brazil. In São Paulo, the most populous state in Brazil (45 million inhabitants), most COVID-19 cases up to April 18th were reported in the Capital and metropolitan area. However, the inner municipalities, where 20 million people live, are also at risk. As governmental authorities discuss the loosening of measures for restricting population mobility, it is urgent to analyze the routes of dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo territory. We hypothesize that urban hierarchy is the main responsible for the disease spreading, and we identify the hotspots and the main routes of virus movement from the metropolis to the inner state. In this ecological study, we use geographic models of population mobility to check for patterns for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We identify two patterns based on surveillance data: one by contiguous diffusion from the capital metropolitan area, and the other hierarchical with long-distance spread through major highways that connects São Paulo city with cities of regional relevance. This knowledge can provide real-time responses to support public health strategies, optimizing the use of resources in order to minimize disease impact on population and economy.
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spelling pubmed-77904162021-01-27 The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil Fortaleza, Carlos Magno Castelo Branco Guimarães, Raul Borges Catão, Rafael de Castro Ferreira, Cláudia Pio Berg de Almeida, Gabriel Nogueira Vilches, Thomas Pugliesi, Edmur PLoS One Research Article Public health policies to contain the spread of COVID-19 rely mainly on non-pharmacological measures. Those measures, especially social distancing, are a challenge for developing countries, such as Brazil. In São Paulo, the most populous state in Brazil (45 million inhabitants), most COVID-19 cases up to April 18th were reported in the Capital and metropolitan area. However, the inner municipalities, where 20 million people live, are also at risk. As governmental authorities discuss the loosening of measures for restricting population mobility, it is urgent to analyze the routes of dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo territory. We hypothesize that urban hierarchy is the main responsible for the disease spreading, and we identify the hotspots and the main routes of virus movement from the metropolis to the inner state. In this ecological study, we use geographic models of population mobility to check for patterns for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We identify two patterns based on surveillance data: one by contiguous diffusion from the capital metropolitan area, and the other hierarchical with long-distance spread through major highways that connects São Paulo city with cities of regional relevance. This knowledge can provide real-time responses to support public health strategies, optimizing the use of resources in order to minimize disease impact on population and economy. Public Library of Science 2021-01-07 /pmc/articles/PMC7790416/ /pubmed/33411768 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245051 Text en © 2021 Fortaleza et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Fortaleza, Carlos Magno Castelo Branco
Guimarães, Raul Borges
Catão, Rafael de Castro
Ferreira, Cláudia Pio
Berg de Almeida, Gabriel
Nogueira Vilches, Thomas
Pugliesi, Edmur
The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil
title The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil
title_full The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil
title_fullStr The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil
title_full_unstemmed The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil
title_short The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil
title_sort use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of covid-19 in são paulo, brazil
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7790416/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33411768
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245051
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