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Quantifying the Varying Predictive Value of Physical Activity Measures Obtained from Wearable Accelerometers on All-Cause Mortality over Short to Medium Time Horizons in NHANES 2003–2006

Physical activity measures derived from wearable accelerometers have been shown to be highly predictive of all-cause mortality. Prediction models based on traditional risk factors and accelerometry-derived physical activity measures are developed for five time horizons. The data set contains 2978 st...

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Autores principales: Tabacu, Lucia, Ledbetter, Mark, Leroux, Andrew, Crainiceanu, Ciprian, Smirnova, Ekaterina
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7792606/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33374911
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21010004
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author Tabacu, Lucia
Ledbetter, Mark
Leroux, Andrew
Crainiceanu, Ciprian
Smirnova, Ekaterina
author_facet Tabacu, Lucia
Ledbetter, Mark
Leroux, Andrew
Crainiceanu, Ciprian
Smirnova, Ekaterina
author_sort Tabacu, Lucia
collection PubMed
description Physical activity measures derived from wearable accelerometers have been shown to be highly predictive of all-cause mortality. Prediction models based on traditional risk factors and accelerometry-derived physical activity measures are developed for five time horizons. The data set contains 2978 study participants between 50 and 85 years old with an average of 13.08 years of follow-up in the NHANES 2003–2004 and 2005–2006. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were fit separately for five datasets for one- to five-year all-cause mortality as outcome (number of events 46, 94, 155, 218, and 297, respectively). In univariate models the total activity count (TAC) was ranked first in all five horizons (AUC between 0.831 and 0.774) while the active to sedentary transition probability (ASTP) was ranked second for one- to four-year mortality models and fourth for the five-year all-cause mortality model (AUC between 0.825 and 0.735). In multivariate models age and ASTP were significant in all one- to five-year all-cause mortality prediction models. Physical activity measures are consistently among the top predictors, even after adjusting for demographic and lifestyle variables. Physical activity measures are strong stand-alone predictors and substantially improve the prediction performance of models based on traditional risk factors.
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spelling pubmed-77926062021-01-09 Quantifying the Varying Predictive Value of Physical Activity Measures Obtained from Wearable Accelerometers on All-Cause Mortality over Short to Medium Time Horizons in NHANES 2003–2006 Tabacu, Lucia Ledbetter, Mark Leroux, Andrew Crainiceanu, Ciprian Smirnova, Ekaterina Sensors (Basel) Article Physical activity measures derived from wearable accelerometers have been shown to be highly predictive of all-cause mortality. Prediction models based on traditional risk factors and accelerometry-derived physical activity measures are developed for five time horizons. The data set contains 2978 study participants between 50 and 85 years old with an average of 13.08 years of follow-up in the NHANES 2003–2004 and 2005–2006. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were fit separately for five datasets for one- to five-year all-cause mortality as outcome (number of events 46, 94, 155, 218, and 297, respectively). In univariate models the total activity count (TAC) was ranked first in all five horizons (AUC between 0.831 and 0.774) while the active to sedentary transition probability (ASTP) was ranked second for one- to four-year mortality models and fourth for the five-year all-cause mortality model (AUC between 0.825 and 0.735). In multivariate models age and ASTP were significant in all one- to five-year all-cause mortality prediction models. Physical activity measures are consistently among the top predictors, even after adjusting for demographic and lifestyle variables. Physical activity measures are strong stand-alone predictors and substantially improve the prediction performance of models based on traditional risk factors. MDPI 2020-12-22 /pmc/articles/PMC7792606/ /pubmed/33374911 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21010004 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Tabacu, Lucia
Ledbetter, Mark
Leroux, Andrew
Crainiceanu, Ciprian
Smirnova, Ekaterina
Quantifying the Varying Predictive Value of Physical Activity Measures Obtained from Wearable Accelerometers on All-Cause Mortality over Short to Medium Time Horizons in NHANES 2003–2006
title Quantifying the Varying Predictive Value of Physical Activity Measures Obtained from Wearable Accelerometers on All-Cause Mortality over Short to Medium Time Horizons in NHANES 2003–2006
title_full Quantifying the Varying Predictive Value of Physical Activity Measures Obtained from Wearable Accelerometers on All-Cause Mortality over Short to Medium Time Horizons in NHANES 2003–2006
title_fullStr Quantifying the Varying Predictive Value of Physical Activity Measures Obtained from Wearable Accelerometers on All-Cause Mortality over Short to Medium Time Horizons in NHANES 2003–2006
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying the Varying Predictive Value of Physical Activity Measures Obtained from Wearable Accelerometers on All-Cause Mortality over Short to Medium Time Horizons in NHANES 2003–2006
title_short Quantifying the Varying Predictive Value of Physical Activity Measures Obtained from Wearable Accelerometers on All-Cause Mortality over Short to Medium Time Horizons in NHANES 2003–2006
title_sort quantifying the varying predictive value of physical activity measures obtained from wearable accelerometers on all-cause mortality over short to medium time horizons in nhanes 2003–2006
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7792606/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33374911
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21010004
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