Global Burden, Risk Factors, and Trends of Esophageal Cancer: An Analysis of Cancer Registries from 48 Countries

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Esophageal cancer is the seventh most common cancer globally. Preventive measures and clinical management differ based on histologic subtype. However, information has been lacking on its most recent patterns according to histological subtype, associated risk factors, and epidemiological trends on a global scale. This study is a global analysis of the incidence/mortality trends of esophageal cancer in more than 48 countries/regions based on high quality population-based registries. We conclude that adenocarcinoma has already surpassed squamous cell carcinoma as the most frequent type of esophageal cancer in some western countries and is expected to increase in other countries. It is important to closely monitor and slow down the growing rates of obesity and metabolic syndrome, which are the important risk factors for adenocarcinoma. With the development of more advanced and less invasive technology, population-based targeted screening endoscopy would be recommended for high-risk individuals. ABSTRACT: This study aimed to examine the global burden, risk factors, and trends of esophageal cancer based on age, sex, and histological subtype. The data were retrieved from cancer registries database from 48 countries in the period 1980–2017. Temporal patterns of incidence and mortality were evaluated by average annual percent change (AAPC) using joinpoint regression. Associations with risk factors were examined by linear regression. The highest incidence of esophageal cancer was observed in Eastern Asia. The highest incidence of adenocarcinoma (AC) was found in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Ireland. A higher AC/squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) incidence ratio was associated with a higher prevalence of obesity and elevated cholesterol. We observed an incidence increase (including AC and SCC) in some countries, with the Czech Republic (female: AAPC 4.66), Spain (female: 3.41), Norway (male: 3.10), Japan (female: 2.18), Thailand (male: 2.17), the Netherlands (male: 2.11; female: 1.88), and Canada (male: 1.51) showing the most significant increase. Countries with increasing mortality included Thailand (male: 5.24), Austria (female: 3.67), Latvia (male: 2.33), and Portugal (male: 1.12). Although the incidence of esophageal cancer showed an overall decreasing trend, an increasing trend was observed in some countries with high AC/SCC incidence ratios. More preventive measures are needed for these countries.