RDW-based clinical score to predict long-term survival in community-acquired pneumonia: a European derivation and validation study

An excess long-term mortality has been observed in patients who were discharged after a community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), even after adjusting for age and comorbidities. We aimed to derive and validate a clinical score to predict long-term mortality in patients with CAP discharged from a general ward. In this retrospective observational study, we derived a clinical risk score from 315 CAP patients discharged from the Internal Medicine ward of Cuneo Hospital, Italy, in 2015–2016 (derivation cohort), which was validated in a cohort of 276 patients discharged from the pneumology service of the Barakaldo Hospital, Spain, from 2015 to 2017, and from two internal medicine wards at the Turin University and Cuneo Hospital, Italy, in 2017. The main outcome was the 18-month follow-up all-cause death. Cox multivariate analysis was used to identify the predictive variables and develop the clinical risk score in the derivation cohort, which we applied in the validation cohort. In the derivation cohort (median age: 79 years, 54% males, median CURB-65 = 2), 18-month mortality was 32%, and 18% in the validation cohort (median age 76 years, 55% males, median CURB-65 = 2). Cox multivariate analysis identified the red blood cell distribution width (RDW), temperature, altered mental status, and Charlson Comorbidity Index as independent predictors. The derived score showed good discrimination (c-index 0.76, 95% CI 0.70–0.81; and 0.83, 95% CI 0.78–0.87, in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively), and calibration. We derived and validated a simple clinical score including RDW, to predict long-term mortality in patients discharged for CAP from a general ward. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11739-020-02615-6.