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Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model Using the Suita Study, a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Japan

Aim: To construct a risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease (CVD) based on the Suita study, an urban Japanese cohort study, and compare its accuracy against the Framingham CVD risk score (FRS) model. Methods: After excluding participants with missing data or those who lost to follow-up, thi...

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Autores principales: Nakai, Michikazu, Watanabe, Makoto, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Nishimura, Kunihiro, Higashiyama, Aya, Takegami, Misa, Nakao, Yoko M, Okamura, Tomonori, Miyamoto, Yoshihiro
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Japan Atherosclerosis Society 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7803836/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32023562
http://dx.doi.org/10.5551/jat.48843
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author Nakai, Michikazu
Watanabe, Makoto
Kokubo, Yoshihiro
Nishimura, Kunihiro
Higashiyama, Aya
Takegami, Misa
Nakao, Yoko M
Okamura, Tomonori
Miyamoto, Yoshihiro
author_facet Nakai, Michikazu
Watanabe, Makoto
Kokubo, Yoshihiro
Nishimura, Kunihiro
Higashiyama, Aya
Takegami, Misa
Nakao, Yoko M
Okamura, Tomonori
Miyamoto, Yoshihiro
author_sort Nakai, Michikazu
collection PubMed
description Aim: To construct a risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease (CVD) based on the Suita study, an urban Japanese cohort study, and compare its accuracy against the Framingham CVD risk score (FRS) model. Methods: After excluding participants with missing data or those who lost to follow-up, this study consisted of 3,080 men and 3,470 women participants aged 30–79 years without CVD at baseline in 1989–1999. The main outcome of this study was incidence of CVD, defined as the incidence of stroke or coronary heart disease. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models with stepwise selection were used to develop the prediction model. To assess model performance, concordance statistics (C-statistics) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a bootstrap procedure. A calibration test was also conducted. Results: During a median follow-up period of 16.9 years, 351 men and 241 women developed CVD. We formulated risk models with and without electrocardiogram (ECG) data that included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lowdensity lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and urinary protein as risk factors. The C-statistics of the Suita CVD risk models with ECG data (0.782; 95% CI, 0.766–0.799) and without ECG data (0.781; 95% CI, 0.765–0.797) were significantly higher than that of the FRS model (0.768; 95% CI, 0.750–0.785). Conclusions: The Suita CVD risk model is feasible to use and improves predictability of the incidence of CVD relative to the FRS model in Japan.
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spelling pubmed-78038362021-01-27 Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model Using the Suita Study, a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Japan Nakai, Michikazu Watanabe, Makoto Kokubo, Yoshihiro Nishimura, Kunihiro Higashiyama, Aya Takegami, Misa Nakao, Yoko M Okamura, Tomonori Miyamoto, Yoshihiro J Atheroscler Thromb Original Article Aim: To construct a risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease (CVD) based on the Suita study, an urban Japanese cohort study, and compare its accuracy against the Framingham CVD risk score (FRS) model. Methods: After excluding participants with missing data or those who lost to follow-up, this study consisted of 3,080 men and 3,470 women participants aged 30–79 years without CVD at baseline in 1989–1999. The main outcome of this study was incidence of CVD, defined as the incidence of stroke or coronary heart disease. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models with stepwise selection were used to develop the prediction model. To assess model performance, concordance statistics (C-statistics) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a bootstrap procedure. A calibration test was also conducted. Results: During a median follow-up period of 16.9 years, 351 men and 241 women developed CVD. We formulated risk models with and without electrocardiogram (ECG) data that included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lowdensity lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and urinary protein as risk factors. The C-statistics of the Suita CVD risk models with ECG data (0.782; 95% CI, 0.766–0.799) and without ECG data (0.781; 95% CI, 0.765–0.797) were significantly higher than that of the FRS model (0.768; 95% CI, 0.750–0.785). Conclusions: The Suita CVD risk model is feasible to use and improves predictability of the incidence of CVD relative to the FRS model in Japan. Japan Atherosclerosis Society 2020-11-01 /pmc/articles/PMC7803836/ /pubmed/32023562 http://dx.doi.org/10.5551/jat.48843 Text en 2020 Japan Atherosclerosis Society This article is distributed under the terms of the latest version of CC BY-NC-SA defined by the Creative Commons Attribution License.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
spellingShingle Original Article
Nakai, Michikazu
Watanabe, Makoto
Kokubo, Yoshihiro
Nishimura, Kunihiro
Higashiyama, Aya
Takegami, Misa
Nakao, Yoko M
Okamura, Tomonori
Miyamoto, Yoshihiro
Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model Using the Suita Study, a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Japan
title Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model Using the Suita Study, a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Japan
title_full Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model Using the Suita Study, a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Japan
title_fullStr Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model Using the Suita Study, a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Japan
title_full_unstemmed Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model Using the Suita Study, a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Japan
title_short Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model Using the Suita Study, a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Japan
title_sort development of a cardiovascular disease risk prediction model using the suita study, a population-based prospective cohort study in japan
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7803836/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32023562
http://dx.doi.org/10.5551/jat.48843
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