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An evaluation of COVID-19 transmission control in Wenzhou using a modified SEIR model
In December 2019, the first confirmed case of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus was reported. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently spreading around the world. The relationships among the pandemic and its associated travel restrictions, social distancing measures, contact tracing, m...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Cambridge University Press
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7804084/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33413715 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820003064 |
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author | Li, Wenning Gong, Jianhua Zhou, Jieping Zhang, Lihui Wang, Dongchuan Li, Jing Shi, Chenhui Fan, Hongkui |
author_facet | Li, Wenning Gong, Jianhua Zhou, Jieping Zhang, Lihui Wang, Dongchuan Li, Jing Shi, Chenhui Fan, Hongkui |
author_sort | Li, Wenning |
collection | PubMed |
description | In December 2019, the first confirmed case of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus was reported. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently spreading around the world. The relationships among the pandemic and its associated travel restrictions, social distancing measures, contact tracing, mask-wearing habits and medical consultation efficiency have not yet been extensively assessed. Based on the epidemic data reported by the Health Commission of Wenzhou, we analysed the developmental characteristics of the epidemic and modified the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model in three discrete ways. (1) According to the implemented preventive measures, the epidemic was divided into three stages: initial, outbreak and controlled. (2) We added many factors, such as health protections, travel restrictions and social distancing, close-contact tracing and the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation (TSOH), to the model. (3) Exposed and infected people were subdivided into isolated and free-moving populations. For the parameter estimation of the model, the average TSOH and daily cured cases, deaths and imported cases can be obtained through individual data from epidemiological investigations. The changes in daily contacts are simulated using the intracity travel intensity (ICTI) from the Baidu Migration Big Data platform. The optimal values of the remaining parameters are calculated by the grid search method. With this model, we calculated the sensitivity of the control measures with regard to the prevention of the spread of the epidemic by simulating the number of infected people in various hypothetical situations. Simultaneously, through a simulation of a second epidemic, the challenges from the rebound of the epidemic were analysed, and prevention and control recommendations were made. The results show that the modified SEIR model can effectively simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Wenzhou. The policy of the lockdown of Wuhan, the launch of the first-level Public Health Emergency Preparedness measures on 23 January 2020 and the implementation of resident travel control measures on 31 January 2020 were crucial to COVID-19 control. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7804084 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Cambridge University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-78040842021-01-13 An evaluation of COVID-19 transmission control in Wenzhou using a modified SEIR model Li, Wenning Gong, Jianhua Zhou, Jieping Zhang, Lihui Wang, Dongchuan Li, Jing Shi, Chenhui Fan, Hongkui Epidemiol Infect Original Paper In December 2019, the first confirmed case of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus was reported. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently spreading around the world. The relationships among the pandemic and its associated travel restrictions, social distancing measures, contact tracing, mask-wearing habits and medical consultation efficiency have not yet been extensively assessed. Based on the epidemic data reported by the Health Commission of Wenzhou, we analysed the developmental characteristics of the epidemic and modified the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model in three discrete ways. (1) According to the implemented preventive measures, the epidemic was divided into three stages: initial, outbreak and controlled. (2) We added many factors, such as health protections, travel restrictions and social distancing, close-contact tracing and the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation (TSOH), to the model. (3) Exposed and infected people were subdivided into isolated and free-moving populations. For the parameter estimation of the model, the average TSOH and daily cured cases, deaths and imported cases can be obtained through individual data from epidemiological investigations. The changes in daily contacts are simulated using the intracity travel intensity (ICTI) from the Baidu Migration Big Data platform. The optimal values of the remaining parameters are calculated by the grid search method. With this model, we calculated the sensitivity of the control measures with regard to the prevention of the spread of the epidemic by simulating the number of infected people in various hypothetical situations. Simultaneously, through a simulation of a second epidemic, the challenges from the rebound of the epidemic were analysed, and prevention and control recommendations were made. The results show that the modified SEIR model can effectively simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Wenzhou. The policy of the lockdown of Wuhan, the launch of the first-level Public Health Emergency Preparedness measures on 23 January 2020 and the implementation of resident travel control measures on 31 January 2020 were crucial to COVID-19 control. Cambridge University Press 2021-01-08 /pmc/articles/PMC7804084/ /pubmed/33413715 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820003064 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Original Paper Li, Wenning Gong, Jianhua Zhou, Jieping Zhang, Lihui Wang, Dongchuan Li, Jing Shi, Chenhui Fan, Hongkui An evaluation of COVID-19 transmission control in Wenzhou using a modified SEIR model |
title | An evaluation of COVID-19 transmission control in Wenzhou using a modified SEIR model |
title_full | An evaluation of COVID-19 transmission control in Wenzhou using a modified SEIR model |
title_fullStr | An evaluation of COVID-19 transmission control in Wenzhou using a modified SEIR model |
title_full_unstemmed | An evaluation of COVID-19 transmission control in Wenzhou using a modified SEIR model |
title_short | An evaluation of COVID-19 transmission control in Wenzhou using a modified SEIR model |
title_sort | evaluation of covid-19 transmission control in wenzhou using a modified seir model |
topic | Original Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7804084/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33413715 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820003064 |
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