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The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning
Population-level data have suggested that bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination may lessen the severity of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) prompting clinical trials in this area. Some reports have demonstrated conflicting results. We performed a robust, ecologic analysis comparing COVID-19 rel...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7804196/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33436946 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80787-z |
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author | Brooks, Nathan A. Puri, Ankur Garg, Sanya Nag, Swapnika Corbo, Jacomo Turabi, Anas El Kaka, Noshir Zemmel, Rodney W. Hegarty, Paul K. Kamat, Ashish M. |
author_facet | Brooks, Nathan A. Puri, Ankur Garg, Sanya Nag, Swapnika Corbo, Jacomo Turabi, Anas El Kaka, Noshir Zemmel, Rodney W. Hegarty, Paul K. Kamat, Ashish M. |
author_sort | Brooks, Nathan A. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Population-level data have suggested that bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination may lessen the severity of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) prompting clinical trials in this area. Some reports have demonstrated conflicting results. We performed a robust, ecologic analysis comparing COVID-19 related mortality (CRM) between strictly selected countries based on BCG vaccination program status utilizing publicly available databases and machine learning methods to define the association between active BCG vaccination programs and CRM. Validation was performed using linear regression and country-specific modeling. CRM was lower for the majority of countries with a BCG vaccination policy for at least the preceding 15 years (BCG15). CRM increased significantly for each increase in the percent population over age 65. A higher total population of a country and BCG15 were significantly associated with improved CRM. There was a consistent association between countries with a BCG vaccination for the preceding 15 years, but not other vaccination programs, and CRM. BCG vaccination programs continued to be associated with decreased CRM even for populations < 40 years old where CRM events are less frequent. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7804196 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-78041962021-01-13 The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning Brooks, Nathan A. Puri, Ankur Garg, Sanya Nag, Swapnika Corbo, Jacomo Turabi, Anas El Kaka, Noshir Zemmel, Rodney W. Hegarty, Paul K. Kamat, Ashish M. Sci Rep Article Population-level data have suggested that bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination may lessen the severity of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) prompting clinical trials in this area. Some reports have demonstrated conflicting results. We performed a robust, ecologic analysis comparing COVID-19 related mortality (CRM) between strictly selected countries based on BCG vaccination program status utilizing publicly available databases and machine learning methods to define the association between active BCG vaccination programs and CRM. Validation was performed using linear regression and country-specific modeling. CRM was lower for the majority of countries with a BCG vaccination policy for at least the preceding 15 years (BCG15). CRM increased significantly for each increase in the percent population over age 65. A higher total population of a country and BCG15 were significantly associated with improved CRM. There was a consistent association between countries with a BCG vaccination for the preceding 15 years, but not other vaccination programs, and CRM. BCG vaccination programs continued to be associated with decreased CRM even for populations < 40 years old where CRM events are less frequent. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-01-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7804196/ /pubmed/33436946 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80787-z Text en © The Author(s) 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Brooks, Nathan A. Puri, Ankur Garg, Sanya Nag, Swapnika Corbo, Jacomo Turabi, Anas El Kaka, Noshir Zemmel, Rodney W. Hegarty, Paul K. Kamat, Ashish M. The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning |
title | The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning |
title_full | The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning |
title_fullStr | The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning |
title_full_unstemmed | The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning |
title_short | The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning |
title_sort | association of coronavirus disease-19 mortality and prior bacille calmette-guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7804196/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33436946 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80787-z |
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