The role of ultrasonographic lung aeration score in the prediction of postoperative pulmonary complications: an observational study

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) are important contributors to mortality and morbidity after surgery. The available predicting models are useful in preoperative risk assessment, but there is a need for validated tools for the early postoperative period as well. Lung ultrasound is becoming popular in intensive and perioperative care and there is a growing interest to evaluate its role in the detection of postoperative pulmonary pathologies. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify characteristics with the potential of recognizing patients at risk by comparing the lung ultrasound scores (LUS) of patients with/without PPC in a 24-h postoperative timeframe. METHODS: Observational study at a university clinic. We recruited ASA 2–3 patients undergoing elective major abdominal surgery under general anaesthesia. LUS was assessed preoperatively, and also 1 and 24 h after surgery. Baseline and operative characteristics were also collected. A one-week follow up identified PPC+ and PPC- patients. Significantly differing LUS values underwent ROC analysis. A multi-variate logistic regression analysis with forward stepwise model building was performed to find independent predictors of PPCs. RESULTS: Out of the 77 recruited patients, 67 were included in the study. We evaluated 18 patients in the PPC+ and 49 in the PPC- group. Mean ages were 68.4 ± 10.2 and 66.4 ± 9.6 years, respectively (p = 0.4829). Patients conforming to ASA 3 class were significantly more represented in the PPC+ group (66.7 and 26.5%; p = 0.0026). LUS at baseline and in the postoperative hour were similar in both populations. The median LUS at 0 h was 1.5 (IQR 1–2) and 1 (IQR 0–2; p = 0.4625) in the PPC+ and PPC- groups, respectively. In the first postoperative hour, both groups had a marked increase, resulting in scores of 6.5 (IQR 3–9) and 5 (IQR 3–7; p = 0.1925). However, in the 24th hour, median LUS were significantly higher in the PPC+ group (6; IQR 6–10 vs 3; IQR 2–4; p < 0.0001) and it was an independent risk factor (OR = 2.6448 CI95% 1.5555–4.4971; p = 0.0003). ROC analysis identified the optimal cut-off at 5 points with high sensitivity (0.9444) and good specificity (0.7755). CONCLUSION: Postoperative LUS at 24 h can identify patients at risk of or in an early phase of PPCs. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12871-021-01236-6.