Forecasting a Cyclical Downturn (Recession) in the US Economy Using a Mathematical Model of Hyman Minsky’s Theory of Financial Instability

By using the US economy as an example, the paper shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed its short-term dynamics, causing a deep crisis recession in 2020 rather than the expected short-term and shallow recession in 2022 caused by the inflation of the financial bubble during the credit expansion...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Akaev, A. A., Sadovnichii, V. A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Pleiades Publishing 2021
Materias:
Control Processes
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7808111/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S1064562420050245
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author Akaev, A. A.
Sadovnichii, V. A.
author_facet Akaev, A. A.
Sadovnichii, V. A.
author_sort Akaev, A. A.
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description By using the US economy as an example, the paper shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed its short-term dynamics, causing a deep crisis recession in 2020 rather than the expected short-term and shallow recession in 2022 caused by the inflation of the financial bubble during the credit expansion that followed the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. To predict the latter scenario, which is natural for the US economy, the authors first developed a mathematical model based on Hyman Minsky’s theory of financial instability, which can serve to manage the processes of credit expansion and contraction in an unstable economy.
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spelling pubmed-78081112021-01-15 Forecasting a Cyclical Downturn (Recession) in the US Economy Using a Mathematical Model of Hyman Minsky’s Theory of Financial Instability Akaev, A. A. Sadovnichii, V. A. Dokl. Math. Control Processes By using the US economy as an example, the paper shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed its short-term dynamics, causing a deep crisis recession in 2020 rather than the expected short-term and shallow recession in 2022 caused by the inflation of the financial bubble during the credit expansion that followed the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. To predict the latter scenario, which is natural for the US economy, the authors first developed a mathematical model based on Hyman Minsky’s theory of financial instability, which can serve to manage the processes of credit expansion and contraction in an unstable economy. Pleiades Publishing 2021-01-14 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC7808111/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S1064562420050245 Text en © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2020, ISSN 1064-5624, Doklady Mathematics, 2020, Vol. 102, No. 2, pp. 422–426. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2020.Russian Text © The Author(s), 2020, published in Doklady Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Matematika, Informatika, Protsessy Upravleniya, 2020, Vol. 494, pp. 80–85. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Control Processes
Akaev, A. A.
Sadovnichii, V. A.
Forecasting a Cyclical Downturn (Recession) in the US Economy Using a Mathematical Model of Hyman Minsky’s Theory of Financial Instability
title Forecasting a Cyclical Downturn (Recession) in the US Economy Using a Mathematical Model of Hyman Minsky’s Theory of Financial Instability
title_full Forecasting a Cyclical Downturn (Recession) in the US Economy Using a Mathematical Model of Hyman Minsky’s Theory of Financial Instability
title_fullStr Forecasting a Cyclical Downturn (Recession) in the US Economy Using a Mathematical Model of Hyman Minsky’s Theory of Financial Instability
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting a Cyclical Downturn (Recession) in the US Economy Using a Mathematical Model of Hyman Minsky’s Theory of Financial Instability
title_short Forecasting a Cyclical Downturn (Recession) in the US Economy Using a Mathematical Model of Hyman Minsky’s Theory of Financial Instability
title_sort forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in the us economy using a mathematical model of hyman minsky’s theory of financial instability
topic Control Processes
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7808111/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S1064562420050245
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