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Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms
Gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP-NENs) are increasing in incidence. Clinicians urgently need a method that can effectively predict the prognosis of GEP-NENs. A total of 14770 GEP-NENs patients with pathologically confirmed between 1975 and 2016 were obtained from the surveillance...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7808509/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33466202 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000024223 |
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author | Xie, Si Li, Lei Wang, Xiaotong Li, Lequn |
author_facet | Xie, Si Li, Lei Wang, Xiaotong Li, Lequn |
author_sort | Xie, Si |
collection | PubMed |
description | Gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP-NENs) are increasing in incidence. Clinicians urgently need a method that can effectively predict the prognosis of GEP-NENs. A total of 14770 GEP-NENs patients with pathologically confirmed between 1975 and 2016 were obtained from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database. All the patients were divided into primary (n = 10377) and validation (n = 4393) cohorts based on the principle of random grouping. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to evaluate predictors associated with overall survival, and a nomogram was constructed based on the primary cohort. An independent external validation cohort and comparison with the eighth edition American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging system were subsequently used to assess the predictive performance of the nomogram. The multivariate Cox model indicated that age, tumour differentiation, and distant metastases were independent predictors associated with overall survival. With respect to the primary cohort, the nomogram exhibited better discriminatory power than the TNM classification (C-index: 0.821 vs 0.738). Discrimination was also superior to that of TNM classification for the validation cohort (C-index: 0.823 vs 0.738). The calibrated nomogram predicted 3- and 5-years survival rate that closely corresponded to the actual survival rate. This study developed and validated a prognostic nomogram applied to patients with GEP-NENs, which may help clinicians make reasonable prognostic judgments and treatment plans to a certain extent. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7808509 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-78085092021-01-15 Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms Xie, Si Li, Lei Wang, Xiaotong Li, Lequn Medicine (Baltimore) 4500 Gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP-NENs) are increasing in incidence. Clinicians urgently need a method that can effectively predict the prognosis of GEP-NENs. A total of 14770 GEP-NENs patients with pathologically confirmed between 1975 and 2016 were obtained from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database. All the patients were divided into primary (n = 10377) and validation (n = 4393) cohorts based on the principle of random grouping. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to evaluate predictors associated with overall survival, and a nomogram was constructed based on the primary cohort. An independent external validation cohort and comparison with the eighth edition American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging system were subsequently used to assess the predictive performance of the nomogram. The multivariate Cox model indicated that age, tumour differentiation, and distant metastases were independent predictors associated with overall survival. With respect to the primary cohort, the nomogram exhibited better discriminatory power than the TNM classification (C-index: 0.821 vs 0.738). Discrimination was also superior to that of TNM classification for the validation cohort (C-index: 0.823 vs 0.738). The calibrated nomogram predicted 3- and 5-years survival rate that closely corresponded to the actual survival rate. This study developed and validated a prognostic nomogram applied to patients with GEP-NENs, which may help clinicians make reasonable prognostic judgments and treatment plans to a certain extent. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2021-01-15 /pmc/articles/PMC7808509/ /pubmed/33466202 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000024223 Text en Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial License 4.0 (CCBY-NC), where it is permissible to download, share, remix, transform, and buildup the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be used commercially without permission from the journal. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) |
spellingShingle | 4500 Xie, Si Li, Lei Wang, Xiaotong Li, Lequn Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms |
title | Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms |
title_full | Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms |
title_fullStr | Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms |
title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms |
title_short | Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms |
title_sort | development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms |
topic | 4500 |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7808509/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33466202 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000024223 |
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