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Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is common among children below 5 years. HFMD has a high incidence in Hubei Province, China. In this study, the Prophet model was used to forecast the incidence of HFMD in comparison with the autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and HFMD inciden...

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Autores principales: Xie, Cong, Wen, Haoyu, Yang, Wenwen, Cai, Jing, Zhang, Peng, Wu, Ran, Li, Mingyan, Huang, Shuqiong
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7809027/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33446859
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81100-2
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author Xie, Cong
Wen, Haoyu
Yang, Wenwen
Cai, Jing
Zhang, Peng
Wu, Ran
Li, Mingyan
Huang, Shuqiong
author_facet Xie, Cong
Wen, Haoyu
Yang, Wenwen
Cai, Jing
Zhang, Peng
Wu, Ran
Li, Mingyan
Huang, Shuqiong
author_sort Xie, Cong
collection PubMed
description Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is common among children below 5 years. HFMD has a high incidence in Hubei Province, China. In this study, the Prophet model was used to forecast the incidence of HFMD in comparison with the autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and HFMD incidence was decomposed into trends, yearly, weekly seasonality and holiday effect. The Prophet model fitted better than the ARIMA model in daily reported incidence of HFMD. The HFMD incidence forecast by the Prophet model showed that two peaks occurred in 2019, with the higher peak in May and the lower peak in December. Periodically changing patterns of HFMD incidence were observed after decomposing the time-series into its major components. In specific, multi-year variability of HFMD incidence was found, and the slow-down increasing point of HFMD incidence was identified. Relatively high HFMD incidences appeared in May and on Mondays. The effect of Spring Festival on HFMD incidence was much stronger than that of other holidays. This study showed the potential of the Prophet model to detect seasonality in HFMD incidence. Our next goal is to incorporate climate variables into the Prophet model to produce an accurate forecast of HFMD incidence.
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spelling pubmed-78090272021-01-15 Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model Xie, Cong Wen, Haoyu Yang, Wenwen Cai, Jing Zhang, Peng Wu, Ran Li, Mingyan Huang, Shuqiong Sci Rep Article Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is common among children below 5 years. HFMD has a high incidence in Hubei Province, China. In this study, the Prophet model was used to forecast the incidence of HFMD in comparison with the autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and HFMD incidence was decomposed into trends, yearly, weekly seasonality and holiday effect. The Prophet model fitted better than the ARIMA model in daily reported incidence of HFMD. The HFMD incidence forecast by the Prophet model showed that two peaks occurred in 2019, with the higher peak in May and the lower peak in December. Periodically changing patterns of HFMD incidence were observed after decomposing the time-series into its major components. In specific, multi-year variability of HFMD incidence was found, and the slow-down increasing point of HFMD incidence was identified. Relatively high HFMD incidences appeared in May and on Mondays. The effect of Spring Festival on HFMD incidence was much stronger than that of other holidays. This study showed the potential of the Prophet model to detect seasonality in HFMD incidence. Our next goal is to incorporate climate variables into the Prophet model to produce an accurate forecast of HFMD incidence. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-01-14 /pmc/articles/PMC7809027/ /pubmed/33446859 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81100-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Xie, Cong
Wen, Haoyu
Yang, Wenwen
Cai, Jing
Zhang, Peng
Wu, Ran
Li, Mingyan
Huang, Shuqiong
Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model
title Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model
title_full Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model
title_fullStr Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model
title_full_unstemmed Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model
title_short Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model
title_sort trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in hubei, china by prophet model
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7809027/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33446859
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81100-2
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