A county-level study of the effects of state-mandated COVID-19 lockdowns on urban and rural restaurant visits using consumers’ cell phone geo-location data

AIM: US federal, state, and local governments implemented numerous COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders (lockdowns) starting in March 2020 to ensure social distancing regulations and help stop the spread of COVID-19. It is important to know how these lockdowns affected businesses, such as restaurants, in regions that vary in terms of poverty status and geography. In this paper, we analyze the differential changes in rural and urban restaurant visits by the restaurants’ NAICS codes following the COVID-19 lockdowns. Our analysis contributes to the public policy literature and helps operational planning for food distribution during a pandemic. METHODS: Since urban and rural consumer behavior and food resources are significantly different, it is crucial to conduct a comparative analysis. Our study applies a difference-in-differences model to capture the differential effects lockdowns have on urban and rural restaurants. RESULTS: We find that restaurant visits declined significantly in both rural and urban counties after shelter-at-home orders. The decrease in total restaurant visits was almost twice as high in urban counties as in rural counties. We also find that visits to fast-food restaurants increased in rural counties during shelter-at-home orders. CONCLUSIONS: These results contribute to previous studies on the dearth of healthy food in rural and poorer regions, and inform important public policy response in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.