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28 Models Later: Model Competition and the Zombie Apocalypse

Between Fall 2011 and Fall 2012 students at Utah State University played several rounds of Humans versus Zombies (HvZ), a role-playing variant of tag popular on college campuses. The goal of the game is for the zombies to tag humans, converting them into more zombies. Based on portrayals of ‘zombiei...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: McGahan, Ian, Powell, James, Spencer, Elizabeth
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7811353/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33452943
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-020-00845-5
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author McGahan, Ian
Powell, James
Spencer, Elizabeth
author_facet McGahan, Ian
Powell, James
Spencer, Elizabeth
author_sort McGahan, Ian
collection PubMed
description Between Fall 2011 and Fall 2012 students at Utah State University played several rounds of Humans versus Zombies (HvZ), a role-playing variant of tag popular on college campuses. The goal of the game is for the zombies to tag humans, converting them into more zombies. Based on portrayals of ‘zombieism’ in popular culture, one might treat HvZ as a disease system. However, a traditional SIR model with mass-action dynamics does a poor job of modeling HvZ, leading to the natural question: What mechanisms drive the dynamics of the HvZ system? We use model competition, with Bayesian Information Criterion as arbiter, to answer this question. First, we develop a suite of models with a variety of transmission mechanisms and fit to data from fall 2011. We use model competition to determine which model(s) have the most support from the data, thereby offering insight into driving mechanisms for HvZ. Bootstrapping is used to both assess the significance of individual mechanisms and to determine confidence in the performance of our models. Finally, we test predictions of the best models with data from fall 2012. Results indicate that through both years of the game humans tend to cluster defensively, zombies tend to hunt in groups, some zombies are more proficient hunters, and some humans leave the game.
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spelling pubmed-78113532021-01-18 28 Models Later: Model Competition and the Zombie Apocalypse McGahan, Ian Powell, James Spencer, Elizabeth Bull Math Biol Original Article Between Fall 2011 and Fall 2012 students at Utah State University played several rounds of Humans versus Zombies (HvZ), a role-playing variant of tag popular on college campuses. The goal of the game is for the zombies to tag humans, converting them into more zombies. Based on portrayals of ‘zombieism’ in popular culture, one might treat HvZ as a disease system. However, a traditional SIR model with mass-action dynamics does a poor job of modeling HvZ, leading to the natural question: What mechanisms drive the dynamics of the HvZ system? We use model competition, with Bayesian Information Criterion as arbiter, to answer this question. First, we develop a suite of models with a variety of transmission mechanisms and fit to data from fall 2011. We use model competition to determine which model(s) have the most support from the data, thereby offering insight into driving mechanisms for HvZ. Bootstrapping is used to both assess the significance of individual mechanisms and to determine confidence in the performance of our models. Finally, we test predictions of the best models with data from fall 2012. Results indicate that through both years of the game humans tend to cluster defensively, zombies tend to hunt in groups, some zombies are more proficient hunters, and some humans leave the game. Springer US 2021-01-16 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7811353/ /pubmed/33452943 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-020-00845-5 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Mathematical Biology 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Article
McGahan, Ian
Powell, James
Spencer, Elizabeth
28 Models Later: Model Competition and the Zombie Apocalypse
title 28 Models Later: Model Competition and the Zombie Apocalypse
title_full 28 Models Later: Model Competition and the Zombie Apocalypse
title_fullStr 28 Models Later: Model Competition and the Zombie Apocalypse
title_full_unstemmed 28 Models Later: Model Competition and the Zombie Apocalypse
title_short 28 Models Later: Model Competition and the Zombie Apocalypse
title_sort 28 models later: model competition and the zombie apocalypse
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7811353/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33452943
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-020-00845-5
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