Long-term trends and regional variations of hypertension incidence in China: a prospective cohort study from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, 1991–2015

OBJECTIVE: The aim is to explore the trends of hypertension incidence and regional variations in China from 1991 to 2015. DESIGN: A dynamic prospective cohort study. SETTING: China Health and Nutrition Survey 1991–2015. PARTICIPANTS: 12 952 Chinese adults aged 18+ years. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident hypertension from 1993 to 2015. RESULTS: Age-standardised hypertension incidence increased from 40.8 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 38.3 to 43.4) between 1993 and 1997 to 48.6 (95% CI 46.1 to 51.0) between 2011 and 2015. The increasing trends were further supported by results from subsequent extended Cox proportional hazard model. In addition, results from the modelling analysis showed that individuals in eastern, central and northeastern China had greater risks of hypertension occurrence in comparison with their counterparts in western China. CONCLUSION: Hypertension incidence increased during the study period. The growth called for more attention on the health education and health promotion of individuals with great risks.