The lymph node ratio predicts cancer-specific survival of node-positive non-small cell lung cancer patients: a population-based SEER analysis

BACKGROUND: Lymph node ratio (LNR) has been suggested to be an effective prognostic tool for stratifying non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cases. In this study, we sought to determine cancer-specific survival (CCS) of NSCLC cases from the SEER registry and used the X-tile method to optimize CCS-based LNR cut-off points for prognostic stratification of node-positive NSCLC. METHODS: CSS and other clinicopathologic variables were retrieved from the SEER registry. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to calculate CSS. The optimal cut-off points for LNR classification were determined by the X-tile approach. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent risks of CSS. RESULTS: Totally 11,341 lung cancer patients were included. Their median CSS was 22 months (range 0,143). The median LNR was 0.22 (Q1,Q3: 0.11, 0.50). X-tile analysis showed that the optimal LNR cut-off points were 0.28 and 0.81, dividing the cohort into low (LNR1 ≤ 0.28; n = 6580, 58%), middle (0.28 < LNR2 < 0.81; n = 3025, 26.7%), and high (LNR3 > 0.81; n = 1736, 15.3%) subsets. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with a low LNR had a significantly higher CCS versus patients with middle or high LNR (P < 0.001). Multivariate competing risks regression analysis revealed that LNR was an independent and significant adverse predictor of CSS (LNR2 vs. LNR1: SHR: 1.56, 95%CI: 1.47,1.67, P < 0.001; LNR3 vs. LNR1: SHR: 2.54, 95%CI: 2.30,2.80, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: LNR is an independent prognostic factor of node-positive NSCLC and its optimal cut-off values established using the robust x-tile method effectively define subpopulations of node-positive NSCLC cases, which is important in guiding selection of treatment strategies clinically. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13019-020-01390-x.