Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

We study the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil based on official data available since March 22, 2020. Calculations are done via an adaptive susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model featuring dynamical recuperation and propagation rates. We are able reproduce the number of confirmed cases over time w...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: dos Santos, I.F.F., Almeida, G.M.A., de Moura, F.A.B.F.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7816938/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33495669
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2021.125773
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author dos Santos, I.F.F.
Almeida, G.M.A.
de Moura, F.A.B.F.
author_facet dos Santos, I.F.F.
Almeida, G.M.A.
de Moura, F.A.B.F.
author_sort dos Santos, I.F.F.
collection PubMed
description We study the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil based on official data available since March 22, 2020. Calculations are done via an adaptive susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model featuring dynamical recuperation and propagation rates. We are able reproduce the number of confirmed cases over time with less than 5% error and also provide with short- and long-term predictions. The model can also be used to account for the epidemic dynamics in other countries with great accuracy.
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spelling pubmed-78169382021-01-21 Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil dos Santos, I.F.F. Almeida, G.M.A. de Moura, F.A.B.F. Physica A Article We study the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil based on official data available since March 22, 2020. Calculations are done via an adaptive susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model featuring dynamical recuperation and propagation rates. We are able reproduce the number of confirmed cases over time with less than 5% error and also provide with short- and long-term predictions. The model can also be used to account for the epidemic dynamics in other countries with great accuracy. Elsevier B.V. 2021-05-01 2021-01-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7816938/ /pubmed/33495669 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2021.125773 Text en © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
dos Santos, I.F.F.
Almeida, G.M.A.
de Moura, F.A.B.F.
Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
title Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
title_full Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
title_fullStr Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
title_short Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
title_sort adaptive sir model for propagation of sars-cov-2 in brazil
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7816938/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33495669
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2021.125773
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