Estimation of parameter of fractional order COVID-19 SIQR epidemic model

Epidemic model have been broadly used in different forms for studying and forecasting epidemiological processes the spread of dengue, zika virus , HIV, SARS and recently , the 2019–20 corona virus which is an ongoing pandemic of corona virus disease (COVID-19). In the present paper, an inverse problem to find the parameters for the single term (multi term) fractional order system of an outbreak of COVID-19 is considered. In the starting, we propose a numerical method for fractional order corona virus system based on the Gorenflo-Mainardi-Moretti-Paradisi (GMMP) scheme, and then to find the parameters we use GMMP method and the modified hybrid Nelder-Mead Simplex search and particle swarm optimization algorithm. With the new fractional orders and parameters our fractional order corona virus system is capable to providing numerical results that agree well with the real data.