Long-term outcomes after kidney transplant failure and variables related to risk of death and probability of retransplant: Results from a single-center cohort study in Brazil

BACKGROUND: Returning to dialysis after kidney graft loss (GL) is associated with a high risk of mortality, mainly in the first 3–6 months. The follow-up of patients with GL should be extended to better understand crude patient outcomes, mainly in emerging countries, where the transplantation activity has increased. METHODS: This is a historical single-center cohort study conducted in an emerging country (Brazil) that included 115 transplant patients with kidney allograft failure who were followed for 44.1 (21.4; 72.6) months after GL. The outcomes were death or retransplantation after GL calculated by Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests. Proportional hazard ratios for death and retransplantation were assessed by Cox regression. RESULTS: The 5-year probability of retransplantation was 38.7% (95% CI: 26.1%-51.2%) and that of death was 37.7% (95% CI: 24.9%-50.5%); OR = 1.03 (95% CI: 0.71–1.70) and P = 0.66. The likelihood of retransplantation was higher in patients who resumed dialysis with higher levels of hemoglobin (HR = 1.22; 95% CI = 1.04–1.43; P = 0.01) and lower in blood type O patients (HR = 0.48; 95% CI = 0.25–0.93; P = 0.03), which was associated with a lower frequency of retransplantation with a subsequent living-donor kidney. On the other hand, the risk of death was significantly associated with Charlson comorbidity index (HR for each point = 1.37; 95% CI 1.19–1.50; P<0.001), and residual eGFR at the time when patients had resumed to dialysis (HR for each mL = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.05–1.25; P = 0.002). The trend toward a lower risk of death when patients had resumed to dialysis using AV fistula access was observed (HR = 0.50; 95% CI 0.25–1.02; P = 0.06), while a higher risk seems to be associated with the number of previous engraftment (HR = 2.01; 95% CI 0.99–4.07; P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The 5-year probability of retransplantation was not less than that of death. Variables related to the probability of retransplantation were hemoglobin level before resuming dialysis and ABO blood type, while the risk of death was associated with comorbidities and residual eGFR.