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Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates

While the international pet trade and habitat destruction have been extensively discussed as major threats to the survival of the pancake tortoise (Malacochersus tornieri), the impact of climate change on the species remains unknown. In this study, we used species distribution modelling to predict t...

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Autores principales: Eustace, Abraham, Esser, Luíz Fernando, Mremi, Rudolf, Malonza, Patrick K., Mwaya, Reginald T.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7816999/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33471868
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238669
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author Eustace, Abraham
Esser, Luíz Fernando
Mremi, Rudolf
Malonza, Patrick K.
Mwaya, Reginald T.
author_facet Eustace, Abraham
Esser, Luíz Fernando
Mremi, Rudolf
Malonza, Patrick K.
Mwaya, Reginald T.
author_sort Eustace, Abraham
collection PubMed
description While the international pet trade and habitat destruction have been extensively discussed as major threats to the survival of the pancake tortoise (Malacochersus tornieri), the impact of climate change on the species remains unknown. In this study, we used species distribution modelling to predict the current and future distribution of pancake tortoises in Zambezian and Somalian biogeographical regions. We used 224 pancake tortoise occurrences obtained from Tanzania, Kenya and Zambia to estimate suitable and stable areas for the pancake tortoise in all countries present in these regions. We also used a protected area network to assess how many of the suitable and stable areas are protected for the conservation of this critically endangered species. Our model predicted the expansion of climatically suitable habitats for pancake tortoises from four countries and a total area of 90,668.75 km(2) to ten countries in the future and an area of 343,459.60–401,179.70 km(2). The model also showed that a more significant area of climatically suitable habitat for the species lies outside of the wildlife protected areas. Based on our results, we can predict that pancake tortoises may not suffer from habitat constriction. However, the species will continue to be at risk from the international pet trade, as most of the identified suitable habitats remain outside of protected areas. We suggest that efforts to conserve the pancake tortoise should not only focus on protected areas but also areas that are unprotected, as these comprise a large proportion of the suitable and stable habitats available following predicted future climate change.
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spelling pubmed-78169992021-01-28 Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates Eustace, Abraham Esser, Luíz Fernando Mremi, Rudolf Malonza, Patrick K. Mwaya, Reginald T. PLoS One Research Article While the international pet trade and habitat destruction have been extensively discussed as major threats to the survival of the pancake tortoise (Malacochersus tornieri), the impact of climate change on the species remains unknown. In this study, we used species distribution modelling to predict the current and future distribution of pancake tortoises in Zambezian and Somalian biogeographical regions. We used 224 pancake tortoise occurrences obtained from Tanzania, Kenya and Zambia to estimate suitable and stable areas for the pancake tortoise in all countries present in these regions. We also used a protected area network to assess how many of the suitable and stable areas are protected for the conservation of this critically endangered species. Our model predicted the expansion of climatically suitable habitats for pancake tortoises from four countries and a total area of 90,668.75 km(2) to ten countries in the future and an area of 343,459.60–401,179.70 km(2). The model also showed that a more significant area of climatically suitable habitat for the species lies outside of the wildlife protected areas. Based on our results, we can predict that pancake tortoises may not suffer from habitat constriction. However, the species will continue to be at risk from the international pet trade, as most of the identified suitable habitats remain outside of protected areas. We suggest that efforts to conserve the pancake tortoise should not only focus on protected areas but also areas that are unprotected, as these comprise a large proportion of the suitable and stable habitats available following predicted future climate change. Public Library of Science 2021-01-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7816999/ /pubmed/33471868 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238669 Text en © 2021 Eustace et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Eustace, Abraham
Esser, Luíz Fernando
Mremi, Rudolf
Malonza, Patrick K.
Mwaya, Reginald T.
Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates
title Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates
title_full Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates
title_fullStr Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates
title_full_unstemmed Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates
title_short Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates
title_sort protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered east africa chelonian: modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7816999/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33471868
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238669
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