Cargando…

COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution

We have put an effort to estimate the number of publications related to the modelling aspect of the corona pandemic through the web search with the corona associated keywords. The survey reveals that plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution. Most of the future...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Paul, Ayan, Reja, Selim, Kundu, Sayani, Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7817444/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33495675
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110697
_version_ 1783638640050569216
author Paul, Ayan
Reja, Selim
Kundu, Sayani
Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi
author_facet Paul, Ayan
Reja, Selim
Kundu, Sayani
Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi
author_sort Paul, Ayan
collection PubMed
description We have put an effort to estimate the number of publications related to the modelling aspect of the corona pandemic through the web search with the corona associated keywords. The survey reveals that plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution. Most of the future predictions based on these epidemiological models are highly unreliable because of the complexity of the dynamical equations and the poor knowledge of realistic values of the model parameters. The incidence time series of top ten corona infected countries are erratic and sparse. But in comparison, the incidence and disease fitness relationships are uniform and concave upward in nature. These simple profiles with the acceleration curves have fundamental implications in understanding the instinctive dynamics of the corona pandemic. We propose a simple population dynamics solution based on the incidence-fitness relationship in predicting that a plateau or steady state of SARS-CoV-2 will be reached using the basic concept of geometry.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7817444
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Elsevier Ltd.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-78174442021-01-21 COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution Paul, Ayan Reja, Selim Kundu, Sayani Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi Chaos Solitons Fractals Article We have put an effort to estimate the number of publications related to the modelling aspect of the corona pandemic through the web search with the corona associated keywords. The survey reveals that plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution. Most of the future predictions based on these epidemiological models are highly unreliable because of the complexity of the dynamical equations and the poor knowledge of realistic values of the model parameters. The incidence time series of top ten corona infected countries are erratic and sparse. But in comparison, the incidence and disease fitness relationships are uniform and concave upward in nature. These simple profiles with the acceleration curves have fundamental implications in understanding the instinctive dynamics of the corona pandemic. We propose a simple population dynamics solution based on the incidence-fitness relationship in predicting that a plateau or steady state of SARS-CoV-2 will be reached using the basic concept of geometry. Elsevier Ltd. 2021-03 2021-01-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7817444/ /pubmed/33495675 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110697 Text en © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Paul, Ayan
Reja, Selim
Kundu, Sayani
Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi
COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution
title COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution
title_full COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution
title_fullStr COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution
title_short COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution
title_sort covid-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7817444/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33495675
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110697
work_keys_str_mv AT paulayan covid19pandemicmodelsrevisitedwithanewproposalplentyofepidemiologicalmodelsoutcastthesimplepopulationdynamicssolution
AT rejaselim covid19pandemicmodelsrevisitedwithanewproposalplentyofepidemiologicalmodelsoutcastthesimplepopulationdynamicssolution
AT kundusayani covid19pandemicmodelsrevisitedwithanewproposalplentyofepidemiologicalmodelsoutcastthesimplepopulationdynamicssolution
AT bhattacharyasabyasachi covid19pandemicmodelsrevisitedwithanewproposalplentyofepidemiologicalmodelsoutcastthesimplepopulationdynamicssolution