Association of smoking reduction and mortality: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal observational studies

INTRODUCTION: Strong evidence shows that smoking cessation decreases mortality. Much less is known regarding the association between reduction in cigarettes per day (CPD) and mortality. The primary aim of this systematic review is to compare the mortality risk between smokers achieving a sustained reduction of CPD and smokers maintaining their smoking rate. The secondary aims are to compare the mortality risk between smokers achieving complete, sustained smoking cessation and (1) smokers maintaining their smoking rate and (2) smokers who achieved a sustained reduction in smoking rate. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: MEDLINE, Web of Sciences and Embase will be searched using a prespecified search strategy, up to 23 November 2020, and will be limited to studies published in English and in French. Longitudinal observational studies using individual data including smokers with at least two distant CPD assessments and a follow-up period of systematic mortality data recording will be included. The main outcome will be the all-cause mortality. The secondary outcome will be specific mortality. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale will be used to assess the risk of bias of individual studies. Outcomes will be analysed using HRs. All other outcomes’ effect size reported in included studies will be converted in HRs using validated methods. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We intend to publish the results of our review in a peer-reviewed journal and to present the findings at national and international meetings and conferences. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019138354.