Early prediction of the risk of scoring lower than 500 on the COMLEX 1

BACKGROUND: The Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination of the United States Level 1 (COMLEX 1) is important for medical students to be able to graduate. There is a glaring need to identify students who are at a significant risk of performing poorly on COMLEX 1 as early as possible so that extra assistance can be provided to those students. Our goal is to produce a reliable predictive model to identify students who are at risk of scoring lower than 500 on COMLEX 1 at the earliest possible time. METHODS: Academic data from medical students who matriculated at Rocky Vista University College of Osteopathic Medicine between 2011 and 2017 were obtained. Odds ratios were used to assess the predictors for scoring lower than 500 on COMLEX 1. Correlation with COMLEX 1 scores was assessed with Pearson correlation coefficient. The predictive models were developed by multiple logistic regression, backward logistic regression, and logistic regression with average scores in courses in the first three semesters, and were based on performances on the Medical College Admissions Test (MCAT) before admission, as well as students’ performances in preclinical courses during the first three semesters. The models were generated in about 82% of the student performance data and were then validated in the remaining 18% of the data. RESULTS: Odds ratios showed that MCAT scores and final grades in each course in the first three semesters were significant in predicting a score lower than 500 on COMLEX 1. Performances in third-semester courses including Renal System II, Cardiovascular System II, and Respiratory System II were most important in prediction. The three predictive models had sensitivities of 65.8 -71%, and specificities of 83.2 - 88.2% in predicting a score lower than 500 on COMLEX 1. CONCLUSIONS: Lower MCAT scores and lower grades in the first three semesters of medical school predict scoring lower than 500 on COMLEX 1. Students who are identified at risk by our models will have a 65.8 -71% chance of actually scoring lower than 500 on COMLEX 1. Those students will have enough time to receive assistance before taking COMLEX 1.