The Trajectory of Alterations in Immune-Cell Counts in Severe-Trauma Patients Is Related to the Later Occurrence of Sepsis and Mortality: Retrospective Study of 917 Cases

BACKGROUND: Severe trauma is believed to disrupt the homeostasis of the immune system, and lead to dramatic changes in the circulating immune-cell count (ICC). The latter fluctuates widely over time. Knowledge about the relationship between these dramatic changes and dynamic fluctuations and the late prognosis of trauma patients is sparse. We investigated the relationship between the trajectory of alterations in the circulating ICC within 7 days in severe-trauma patients and subsequent sepsis and mortality. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 917 patients with an Injury Severity Score ≥16 was undertaken. The absolute neutrophil, lymphocyte, and monocyte counts (ANC, ALC, and AMC, respectively) on days 1, 3, and 7 (D1, D3, and D7, respectively) after trauma, and whether sepsis or death occurred within 60 days, were recorded. As the disordered circulating ICCs fluctuated widely, their time-varying slopes (D3/D1 and D7/D3) were calculated. Patients were divided into “sepsis” and “non-sepsis” groups, as well as “alive” and “death” groups. Comparative studies were conducted between every two groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify variables related to the risk of sepsis and mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted to assess the predictive value of various risk factors. RESULTS: More severe trauma caused more pronounced increases in the ANC and slower recovery of the ALC within 7 days. The ALC (D3), ANC (D7), ALC (D3/D1), and ANC (D7/D3) were independent risk factors for sepsis. The ALC (D3), ALC (D7), AMC (D7), and ALC (D3/D1) were independent risk factors for mortality. A combination of the ALC (D3) and ALC (D3/D1) exerted a good predictive value for sepsis and death. CONCLUSIONS: The trajectory of alterations in the circulating ICC in the early stage after trauma is related to subsequent sepsis and mortality.