Developing a decision‐making framework for insect pest management: a case study using Aphis glycines (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

BACKGROUND: The profitability of farming varies based on factors such as a crop's market value, input costs and occurrence of resistant pests, all capable of altering the value of pest management tactics in an integrated pest management program. We provide a framework for calculating expected yield and expected net revenue of pest management scenarios, using the soybean aphid (Aphis glycines) as a case study. Foliar insecticide and host‐plant resistance are effective management tactics for preventing yield loss from soybean aphid outbreaks; however, pyrethroid‐resistant aphid populations pose a management challenge for farmers. We evaluated eight scenarios relevant to soybean aphid management in Iowa with varying probabilities of aphid outbreaks and insecticide‐resistant aphids occurring. RESULTS: Our equation suggests that insecticide use is profitable when the probability of an aphid outbreak is ≥29%, and soybean production will become more costly with increasing probability of pyrethroid‐resistant aphids. If farmers continue to use pyrethroids, they will not experience financial consequences from pyrethroid‐resistant aphids until the chance of insecticide resistance is 48%. Aphid‐resistant varieties provided consistent yield and offered the highest net revenue under all conditions. CONCLUSION: This framework can be used for other crop–pest systems to evaluate the profitability of management tactics and investigate how resistance impacts revenue for farmers. Including the cost of resistance in crop budgets can help farmers and agronomic consultants comprehend these impacts and enhance decision‐making to increase revenue and curb resistance development.