Prevalence and predictors of susceptibility and future intention to smoke cigarettes among school-going adolescents in Ibadan, Nigeria

INTRODUCTION: the tobacco control interventions targeted at preventing the initiation of tobacco habits are crucial to effective control of tobacco use among adolescents. An understanding of the predictors of smoking susceptibility and future intention to smoke is important in developing effective intervention programmes. This study, therefore, assessed the prevalence and predictors of susceptibility and future intention to smoke cigarettes among school-going adolescents in Ibadan, Nigeria. METHODS: a cross-sectional study among 830 school-going, non-smoking adolescents, who were randomly selected from 18 secondary schools in Ibadan, Nigeria. Using a self-administered, structured questionnaire, information on socio-demography, tobacco attitudes and habits were collected and analyzed using SPSS version 25. RESULTS: the prevalence of susceptibility and future intention to smoke cigarette were 25.9% and 6.3%, respectively. Predictors of susceptibility were low social-class (aOR:1.68; 95%CI:1.01-2.80); cigarette sale near schools (aOR:2.04; 95%CI:1.16-3.61); poor attitude (aOR:1.93; 95%CI:1.29-2.89); no harm-perception to smoking (aOR:3.55; 95%CI:2.13-5.92), exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) (aOR:2.31; 95%CI:1.52-3.50) and perceived safety of short-term smoking (aOR:1.59; 95%CI:1.02-2.44). Predictors of future intention to smoke were: ever-tobacco smoking (aOR:2.05; 95%CI:1.003-4.170); cigarette sale near schools (aOR:1.79; 95%CI:1.09-2.94); poor attitude (aOR:1.95; 95%CI:1.31-2.88), no harm perception to smoking (aOR:3.87; 95%CI:2.38-6.31), exposure to SHS (aOR:2.45; 95%CI:1.64-3.67) and perceived safety of short-term smoking (aOR:1.59; 95%CI:1.05-2.44). CONCLUSION: a significant proportion of the population had high susceptibility to smoke as well as high future intention to smoke. Sales of cigarettes near schools, poor attitude and poor perception about the harm from smoking and exposure to SHS were important predictors of both susceptibility and future intention to smoke among respondents.