Re-evaluation of gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth

BACKGROUND: To evaluate gestational age as a predictor of subsequent preterm birth. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective birth cohort study to evaluate gestational age as a predictor of subsequent preterm birth. Participants were mothers who gave birth to their first two children in Western Australia, 1980–2015 (N = 255,151 mothers). For each week of final gestational age of the first birth, we calculated relative risks (RR) and absolute risks (AR) of subsequent preterm birth defined as final gestational age before 28, 32, 34 and <37 weeks. Risks were unadjusted to preserve risk factor profiles at each week of gestation. RESULTS: The relative risks of second birth before 28, 32, and 34 weeks’ gestation were all approximately twenty times higher for mothers whose first birth had a gestational age of 22 to 30 weeks compared to those whose first birth was at 40 weeks’ gestation. The absolute risks of second birth before 28, 32, and 34 weeks’ gestation for these mothers had upper confidence limits that were all less than 16.74%. The absolute risk of second birth before 37 weeks was highest at 32.11% (95% CI: 30.27, 34.02) for mothers whose first birth was 22 to 30 weeks’ gestation. For all gestational ages of the first child, the lowest quartile and median gestational age of the second birth were at least 36 weeks and at least 38 weeks, respectively. Sensitivity and positive predictive values were all below 35%. CONCLUSION: Relative risks of early subsequent birth increased markedly with decreasing gestational age of the first birth. However, absolute risks of clinically significant preterm birth (<28 weeks, <32 weeks, <34 weeks), sensitivity and positive predictive values remained low. Early gestational age is a strong risk factor but a poor predictor of subsequent preterm birth.