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Effects of short-term travel on COVID-19 spread: A novel SEIR model and case study in Minnesota

The novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 was first identified in Hubei Province, China in December, 2019. Within a matter of months the virus had spread and become a global pandemic. In addition to international air travel, local travel (e.g. by passenger car) contributes to the geographic spr...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Levin, Michael W., Shang, Mingfeng, Stern, Raphael
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7822539/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33481956
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245919
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author Levin, Michael W.
Shang, Mingfeng
Stern, Raphael
author_facet Levin, Michael W.
Shang, Mingfeng
Stern, Raphael
author_sort Levin, Michael W.
collection PubMed
description The novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 was first identified in Hubei Province, China in December, 2019. Within a matter of months the virus had spread and become a global pandemic. In addition to international air travel, local travel (e.g. by passenger car) contributes to the geographic spread of COVID-19. We modify the common susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) virus spread model and investigate the extent to which short-term travel associated with driving influences the spread of the virus. We consider the case study of the US state of Minnesota, and calibrated the proposed model with travel and viral spread data. Using our modified SEIR model that considers local short-term travel, we are able to better explain the virus spread than using the long-term travel SEIR model. Short-term travel associated with driving is predicted to be a significant contributor to the historical and future spread of COVID-19. The calibrated model also predicts the proportion of infections that were detected. We find that if driving trips remain at current levels, a substantial increase in COVID-19 cases may be observed in Minnesota, while decreasing intrastate travel could help contain the virus spread.
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spelling pubmed-78225392021-02-01 Effects of short-term travel on COVID-19 spread: A novel SEIR model and case study in Minnesota Levin, Michael W. Shang, Mingfeng Stern, Raphael PLoS One Research Article The novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 was first identified in Hubei Province, China in December, 2019. Within a matter of months the virus had spread and become a global pandemic. In addition to international air travel, local travel (e.g. by passenger car) contributes to the geographic spread of COVID-19. We modify the common susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) virus spread model and investigate the extent to which short-term travel associated with driving influences the spread of the virus. We consider the case study of the US state of Minnesota, and calibrated the proposed model with travel and viral spread data. Using our modified SEIR model that considers local short-term travel, we are able to better explain the virus spread than using the long-term travel SEIR model. Short-term travel associated with driving is predicted to be a significant contributor to the historical and future spread of COVID-19. The calibrated model also predicts the proportion of infections that were detected. We find that if driving trips remain at current levels, a substantial increase in COVID-19 cases may be observed in Minnesota, while decreasing intrastate travel could help contain the virus spread. Public Library of Science 2021-01-22 /pmc/articles/PMC7822539/ /pubmed/33481956 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245919 Text en © 2021 Levin et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Levin, Michael W.
Shang, Mingfeng
Stern, Raphael
Effects of short-term travel on COVID-19 spread: A novel SEIR model and case study in Minnesota
title Effects of short-term travel on COVID-19 spread: A novel SEIR model and case study in Minnesota
title_full Effects of short-term travel on COVID-19 spread: A novel SEIR model and case study in Minnesota
title_fullStr Effects of short-term travel on COVID-19 spread: A novel SEIR model and case study in Minnesota
title_full_unstemmed Effects of short-term travel on COVID-19 spread: A novel SEIR model and case study in Minnesota
title_short Effects of short-term travel on COVID-19 spread: A novel SEIR model and case study in Minnesota
title_sort effects of short-term travel on covid-19 spread: a novel seir model and case study in minnesota
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7822539/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33481956
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245919
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