Cargando…

Effective epidemic model for COVID-19 using accumulated deaths

The severe acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19 has been in the center of the ongoing global health crisis in 2020. The high prevalence of mild cases facilitates sub-notification outside hospital environments and the number of those who are or have been infected remains largely unknown, leading to po...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Nakamura, G., Grammaticos, B., Deroulers, C., Badoual, M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7826015/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33519102
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110667
_version_ 1783640441430736896
author Nakamura, G.
Grammaticos, B.
Deroulers, C.
Badoual, M.
author_facet Nakamura, G.
Grammaticos, B.
Deroulers, C.
Badoual, M.
author_sort Nakamura, G.
collection PubMed
description The severe acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19 has been in the center of the ongoing global health crisis in 2020. The high prevalence of mild cases facilitates sub-notification outside hospital environments and the number of those who are or have been infected remains largely unknown, leading to poor estimates of the crude mortality rate of the disease. Here we use a simple model to describe the number of accumulated deaths caused by COVID-19. The close connection between the proposed model and an approximate solution of the SIR model provides estimates of epidemiological parameters. We find values for the crude mortality between [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] which are lower than estimated numbers obtained from laboratory-confirmed patients. We also calculate quantities of practical interest such as the basic reproduction number and subsequent increment after relaxation of lockdown and other control measures.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7826015
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Elsevier Ltd.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-78260152021-01-25 Effective epidemic model for COVID-19 using accumulated deaths Nakamura, G. Grammaticos, B. Deroulers, C. Badoual, M. Chaos Solitons Fractals Article The severe acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19 has been in the center of the ongoing global health crisis in 2020. The high prevalence of mild cases facilitates sub-notification outside hospital environments and the number of those who are or have been infected remains largely unknown, leading to poor estimates of the crude mortality rate of the disease. Here we use a simple model to describe the number of accumulated deaths caused by COVID-19. The close connection between the proposed model and an approximate solution of the SIR model provides estimates of epidemiological parameters. We find values for the crude mortality between [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] which are lower than estimated numbers obtained from laboratory-confirmed patients. We also calculate quantities of practical interest such as the basic reproduction number and subsequent increment after relaxation of lockdown and other control measures. Elsevier Ltd. 2021-03 2021-01-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7826015/ /pubmed/33519102 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110667 Text en © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Nakamura, G.
Grammaticos, B.
Deroulers, C.
Badoual, M.
Effective epidemic model for COVID-19 using accumulated deaths
title Effective epidemic model for COVID-19 using accumulated deaths
title_full Effective epidemic model for COVID-19 using accumulated deaths
title_fullStr Effective epidemic model for COVID-19 using accumulated deaths
title_full_unstemmed Effective epidemic model for COVID-19 using accumulated deaths
title_short Effective epidemic model for COVID-19 using accumulated deaths
title_sort effective epidemic model for covid-19 using accumulated deaths
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7826015/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33519102
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110667
work_keys_str_mv AT nakamurag effectiveepidemicmodelforcovid19usingaccumulateddeaths
AT grammaticosb effectiveepidemicmodelforcovid19usingaccumulateddeaths
AT deroulersc effectiveepidemicmodelforcovid19usingaccumulateddeaths
AT badoualm effectiveepidemicmodelforcovid19usingaccumulateddeaths