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COVID-19 intervention models: An initial aggressive treatment strategy for controlling the infection

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak emerged in December 2019. The disease has caused loss of many lives and has become an unprecedented threat to public health worldwide. We develop simple COVID-19 epidemic models to study treatment strategies to control the pandemic. The results show that era...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Oduro, Bismark, Magagula, Vusi Mpendulo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7826112/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33521408
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.01.007
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author Oduro, Bismark
Magagula, Vusi Mpendulo
author_facet Oduro, Bismark
Magagula, Vusi Mpendulo
author_sort Oduro, Bismark
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description The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak emerged in December 2019. The disease has caused loss of many lives and has become an unprecedented threat to public health worldwide. We develop simple COVID-19 epidemic models to study treatment strategies to control the pandemic. The results show that eradication of the disease is possible if the efficacy of treatment is perfect. We also investigate the existence of a dual-rate effect. Conditions under which the effect occurs are derived. When the effect is present, a tactic to control the infection might be to initially treat infected individuals aggressively at a relatively high rate to drive the prevalence to a lower region that can be maintained in the long run at relatively moderate rate and cost.
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spelling pubmed-78261122021-01-25 COVID-19 intervention models: An initial aggressive treatment strategy for controlling the infection Oduro, Bismark Magagula, Vusi Mpendulo Infect Dis Model Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak emerged in December 2019. The disease has caused loss of many lives and has become an unprecedented threat to public health worldwide. We develop simple COVID-19 epidemic models to study treatment strategies to control the pandemic. The results show that eradication of the disease is possible if the efficacy of treatment is perfect. We also investigate the existence of a dual-rate effect. Conditions under which the effect occurs are derived. When the effect is present, a tactic to control the infection might be to initially treat infected individuals aggressively at a relatively high rate to drive the prevalence to a lower region that can be maintained in the long run at relatively moderate rate and cost. KeAi Publishing 2021-01-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7826112/ /pubmed/33521408 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.01.007 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
Oduro, Bismark
Magagula, Vusi Mpendulo
COVID-19 intervention models: An initial aggressive treatment strategy for controlling the infection
title COVID-19 intervention models: An initial aggressive treatment strategy for controlling the infection
title_full COVID-19 intervention models: An initial aggressive treatment strategy for controlling the infection
title_fullStr COVID-19 intervention models: An initial aggressive treatment strategy for controlling the infection
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 intervention models: An initial aggressive treatment strategy for controlling the infection
title_short COVID-19 intervention models: An initial aggressive treatment strategy for controlling the infection
title_sort covid-19 intervention models: an initial aggressive treatment strategy for controlling the infection
topic Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7826112/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33521408
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.01.007
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