The rates and medical necessity of cesarean delivery in China, 2012–2019: an inspiration from Jiangsu

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) in 2015 stated that every effort should be made to provide cesarean delivery (CD) for women in need. In China, the two-child policy largely prompts the number of advanced age childbirth, which raises the possibility of an increasing number of women who need a c-section. The aim of this study was to assess the trends in the overall and medical indication-classified CD rates in the era of the two-child policy in Jiangsu, China. METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional study of 291,448 women who delivered in 11 hospitals in Jiangsu province between 2012 and 2019 was conducted. Medical cesarean indication for each woman was ascertained by manually reviewing the medical records. The 291,448 women were divided into two subgroups according to the presence of the indications: the indicated group (7.80%) and the non-indicated group (92.20%). We then fitted joinpoint regression and log-binomial regression models to estimate trends in the CD rates across the study period. RESULTS: The overall CD rate was observed with a declining trend from 52.51% in 2012–2015 to 49.76% in 2016–2019 (adjusted RR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.91–0.93; P < 0.001), along with an annual percentage change (APC) to be − 1.0 (95% CI, − 2.1 to 0.0) across the period. The participants were then divided into two subgroups according to the presence of medical CD indications: the indicated group (7.80%) and the non-indicated group (92.20%).We found the declining trend was most pronounced in the non-indicated group, with the CD rates decreased from 50.02% in 2012–2015 to 46.27% in 2016–2019 (adjusted RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.89–0.90; P < 0.001). By contrast, we observed a steady trend in the CD rate of the indicated group, which maintained from 87.47% in 2012–2015 to 86.57% in 2016–2019 (P = 0.448). In the indicated group, a higher risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes was revealed for those women who delivered vaginally as compared with those who received c-section. We further investigated that women with following specific indications had a higher proportion of vaginal delivery, i.e., pregnancy complications, fetal macrosomia, and pregnancy complicated with tumor (34.70%, 10.84%, and 16.34%, respectively). Women with the above 3 indications were observed with a higher risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes if delivered vaginally. The incidence rates of the medical indications among the general population increased considerably over the 8-year period (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although the overall CD rate apparently decreased in the recent years, along with the decline of the unnecessary CD rate, a considerable proportion of indicated women were not provided with CD service in Jiangsu, China. Instead of targeting the overall CD rate, we need to take actions to reduce unnecessary CD rate and provide adequate c-section service for women with indications, particularly for those with underlying diseases and suspected fetal macrosomia. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-020-01890-6.