Mathematical analysis of SIRD model of COVID-19 with Caputo fractional derivative based on real data

We discuss a fractional-order SIRD mathematical model of the COVID-19 disease in the sense of Caputo in this article. We compute the basic reproduction number through the next-generation matrix. We derive the stability results based on the basic reproduction number. We prove the results of the solut...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Nisar, Kottakkaran Sooppy, Ahmad, Shabir, Ullah, Aman, Shah, Kamal, Alrabaiah, Hussam, Arfan, Muhammad
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7831877/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33520629
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103772
Descripción
Sumario:We discuss a fractional-order SIRD mathematical model of the COVID-19 disease in the sense of Caputo in this article. We compute the basic reproduction number through the next-generation matrix. We derive the stability results based on the basic reproduction number. We prove the results of the solution existence and uniqueness via fixed point theory. We utilize the fractional Adams–Bashforth method for obtaining the approximate solution of the proposed model. We illustrate the obtained numerical results in plots to show the COVID-19 transmission dynamics. Further, we compare our results with some reported real data against confirmed infected and death cases per day for the initial 67 days in Wuhan city.

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