Mathematical analysis of SIRD model of COVID-19 with Caputo fractional derivative based on real data

We discuss a fractional-order SIRD mathematical model of the COVID-19 disease in the sense of Caputo in this article. We compute the basic reproduction number through the next-generation matrix. We derive the stability results based on the basic reproduction number. We prove the results of the solut...

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Autores principales: Nisar, Kottakkaran Sooppy, Ahmad, Shabir, Ullah, Aman, Shah, Kamal, Alrabaiah, Hussam, Arfan, Muhammad
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7831877/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33520629
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103772
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author Nisar, Kottakkaran Sooppy
Ahmad, Shabir
Ullah, Aman
Shah, Kamal
Alrabaiah, Hussam
Arfan, Muhammad
author_facet Nisar, Kottakkaran Sooppy
Ahmad, Shabir
Ullah, Aman
Shah, Kamal
Alrabaiah, Hussam
Arfan, Muhammad
author_sort Nisar, Kottakkaran Sooppy
collection PubMed
description We discuss a fractional-order SIRD mathematical model of the COVID-19 disease in the sense of Caputo in this article. We compute the basic reproduction number through the next-generation matrix. We derive the stability results based on the basic reproduction number. We prove the results of the solution existence and uniqueness via fixed point theory. We utilize the fractional Adams–Bashforth method for obtaining the approximate solution of the proposed model. We illustrate the obtained numerical results in plots to show the COVID-19 transmission dynamics. Further, we compare our results with some reported real data against confirmed infected and death cases per day for the initial 67 days in Wuhan city.
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spelling pubmed-78318772021-01-26 Mathematical analysis of SIRD model of COVID-19 with Caputo fractional derivative based on real data Nisar, Kottakkaran Sooppy Ahmad, Shabir Ullah, Aman Shah, Kamal Alrabaiah, Hussam Arfan, Muhammad Results Phys Article We discuss a fractional-order SIRD mathematical model of the COVID-19 disease in the sense of Caputo in this article. We compute the basic reproduction number through the next-generation matrix. We derive the stability results based on the basic reproduction number. We prove the results of the solution existence and uniqueness via fixed point theory. We utilize the fractional Adams–Bashforth method for obtaining the approximate solution of the proposed model. We illustrate the obtained numerical results in plots to show the COVID-19 transmission dynamics. Further, we compare our results with some reported real data against confirmed infected and death cases per day for the initial 67 days in Wuhan city. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021-02 2020-12-29 /pmc/articles/PMC7831877/ /pubmed/33520629 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103772 Text en © 2020 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Nisar, Kottakkaran Sooppy
Ahmad, Shabir
Ullah, Aman
Shah, Kamal
Alrabaiah, Hussam
Arfan, Muhammad
Mathematical analysis of SIRD model of COVID-19 with Caputo fractional derivative based on real data
title Mathematical analysis of SIRD model of COVID-19 with Caputo fractional derivative based on real data
title_full Mathematical analysis of SIRD model of COVID-19 with Caputo fractional derivative based on real data
title_fullStr Mathematical analysis of SIRD model of COVID-19 with Caputo fractional derivative based on real data
title_full_unstemmed Mathematical analysis of SIRD model of COVID-19 with Caputo fractional derivative based on real data
title_short Mathematical analysis of SIRD model of COVID-19 with Caputo fractional derivative based on real data
title_sort mathematical analysis of sird model of covid-19 with caputo fractional derivative based on real data
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7831877/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33520629
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103772
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