Cargando…

Modeling Social Distancing Strategies to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Israel: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

OBJECTIVES: While highly effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 spread, national lockdowns come with an enormous economic price. Few countries have adopted an alternative “testing, tracing, and isolation” approach to selectively isolate people at high exposure risk, thereby minimizing the economic impac...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Shlomai, Amir, Leshno, Ari, Sklan, Ella H., Leshno, Moshe
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7833124/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33933228
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2020.09.013
_version_ 1783641992607039488
author Shlomai, Amir
Leshno, Ari
Sklan, Ella H.
Leshno, Moshe
author_facet Shlomai, Amir
Leshno, Ari
Sklan, Ella H.
Leshno, Moshe
author_sort Shlomai, Amir
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: While highly effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 spread, national lockdowns come with an enormous economic price. Few countries have adopted an alternative “testing, tracing, and isolation” approach to selectively isolate people at high exposure risk, thereby minimizing the economic impact. To assist policy makers, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of these 2 strategies. METHODS: A modified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered, and Deceased (SEIRD) model was employed to assess the situation in Israel, a small country with ∼9 million people. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of these strategies as well as the expected number of infected individuals and deaths were calculated. RESULTS: A nationwide lockdown is expected to save, on average, 274 (median 124, interquartile range: 71-221) lives compared to the “testing, tracing, and isolation” approach. However, the ICER will be, on average, $45 104 156 (median $49.6 million, interquartile range: 22.7-220.1) to prevent 1 case of death. CONCLUSION: A national lockdown has a moderate advantage in saving lives with tremendous costs and possible overwhelming economic effects. These findings should assist decision makers dealing with additional waves of this pandemic.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7833124
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-78331242021-01-26 Modeling Social Distancing Strategies to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Israel: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Shlomai, Amir Leshno, Ari Sklan, Ella H. Leshno, Moshe Value Health Themed Section: COVID-19 OBJECTIVES: While highly effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 spread, national lockdowns come with an enormous economic price. Few countries have adopted an alternative “testing, tracing, and isolation” approach to selectively isolate people at high exposure risk, thereby minimizing the economic impact. To assist policy makers, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of these 2 strategies. METHODS: A modified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered, and Deceased (SEIRD) model was employed to assess the situation in Israel, a small country with ∼9 million people. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of these strategies as well as the expected number of infected individuals and deaths were calculated. RESULTS: A nationwide lockdown is expected to save, on average, 274 (median 124, interquartile range: 71-221) lives compared to the “testing, tracing, and isolation” approach. However, the ICER will be, on average, $45 104 156 (median $49.6 million, interquartile range: 22.7-220.1) to prevent 1 case of death. CONCLUSION: A national lockdown has a moderate advantage in saving lives with tremendous costs and possible overwhelming economic effects. These findings should assist decision makers dealing with additional waves of this pandemic. ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. 2021-05 2020-12-09 /pmc/articles/PMC7833124/ /pubmed/33933228 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2020.09.013 Text en © 2020 ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Themed Section: COVID-19
Shlomai, Amir
Leshno, Ari
Sklan, Ella H.
Leshno, Moshe
Modeling Social Distancing Strategies to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Israel: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
title Modeling Social Distancing Strategies to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Israel: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
title_full Modeling Social Distancing Strategies to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Israel: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
title_fullStr Modeling Social Distancing Strategies to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Israel: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Modeling Social Distancing Strategies to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Israel: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
title_short Modeling Social Distancing Strategies to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Israel: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
title_sort modeling social distancing strategies to prevent sars-cov-2 spread in israel: a cost-effectiveness analysis
topic Themed Section: COVID-19
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7833124/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33933228
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2020.09.013
work_keys_str_mv AT shlomaiamir modelingsocialdistancingstrategiestopreventsarscov2spreadinisraelacosteffectivenessanalysis
AT leshnoari modelingsocialdistancingstrategiestopreventsarscov2spreadinisraelacosteffectivenessanalysis
AT sklanellah modelingsocialdistancingstrategiestopreventsarscov2spreadinisraelacosteffectivenessanalysis
AT leshnomoshe modelingsocialdistancingstrategiestopreventsarscov2spreadinisraelacosteffectivenessanalysis