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COVID-19 cumulative incidence, intensive care, and mortality in Italian regions compared to selected European countries

BACKGROUND: The high contagiousness and rapid spreading of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a high number of critical to severe life-threatening cases, which required urgent hospital admission and treatment in intensive care units (ICUs). The pandemic has been a tough test for all...

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Autores principales: Olivieri, A., Palù, G., Sebastiani, G.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7833245/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33130199
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.070
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author Olivieri, A.
Palù, G.
Sebastiani, G.
author_facet Olivieri, A.
Palù, G.
Sebastiani, G.
author_sort Olivieri, A.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The high contagiousness and rapid spreading of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a high number of critical to severe life-threatening cases, which required urgent hospital admission and treatment in intensive care units (ICUs). The pandemic has been a tough test for all European national health systems and their capability to provide an adequate reaction. METHODS: The present work aims to reveal correlations between parameters such as COVID-19 incidence, ICU bed occupancy, ICU excess area, and mortality in Italian regions. Public data for the period of March 1 to July 16, 2020, were analyzed using several mathematical and statistical methods. RESULTS: The analysis defined two separate groups of Italian regions. The examined variables considered within these groups were interlinked and dependent on each other. The regions of the two groups shared the same kind of fitted model (linear) explaining mortality as a function of cumulative incidence, but with higher value of the constant in one group, so characterized by a high intrinsic “strength” of the pandemic, certainly playing a major role in the generation of a large number of severe and life-threatening cases. These results are confirmed at European level. Other factors may condition mortality and be linked to incidence, such as ICU saturation and excess. CONCLUSIONS: These quantitative results could be a very helpful tool to set up preventive measures and optimize biomedical interventions before the pandemic, in its recurrent waves, could overcome the reaction capacity of any public health system.
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spelling pubmed-78332452021-01-26 COVID-19 cumulative incidence, intensive care, and mortality in Italian regions compared to selected European countries Olivieri, A. Palù, G. Sebastiani, G. Int J Infect Dis Article BACKGROUND: The high contagiousness and rapid spreading of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a high number of critical to severe life-threatening cases, which required urgent hospital admission and treatment in intensive care units (ICUs). The pandemic has been a tough test for all European national health systems and their capability to provide an adequate reaction. METHODS: The present work aims to reveal correlations between parameters such as COVID-19 incidence, ICU bed occupancy, ICU excess area, and mortality in Italian regions. Public data for the period of March 1 to July 16, 2020, were analyzed using several mathematical and statistical methods. RESULTS: The analysis defined two separate groups of Italian regions. The examined variables considered within these groups were interlinked and dependent on each other. The regions of the two groups shared the same kind of fitted model (linear) explaining mortality as a function of cumulative incidence, but with higher value of the constant in one group, so characterized by a high intrinsic “strength” of the pandemic, certainly playing a major role in the generation of a large number of severe and life-threatening cases. These results are confirmed at European level. Other factors may condition mortality and be linked to incidence, such as ICU saturation and excess. CONCLUSIONS: These quantitative results could be a very helpful tool to set up preventive measures and optimize biomedical interventions before the pandemic, in its recurrent waves, could overcome the reaction capacity of any public health system. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2021-01 2020-10-30 /pmc/articles/PMC7833245/ /pubmed/33130199 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.070 Text en © 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Olivieri, A.
Palù, G.
Sebastiani, G.
COVID-19 cumulative incidence, intensive care, and mortality in Italian regions compared to selected European countries
title COVID-19 cumulative incidence, intensive care, and mortality in Italian regions compared to selected European countries
title_full COVID-19 cumulative incidence, intensive care, and mortality in Italian regions compared to selected European countries
title_fullStr COVID-19 cumulative incidence, intensive care, and mortality in Italian regions compared to selected European countries
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 cumulative incidence, intensive care, and mortality in Italian regions compared to selected European countries
title_short COVID-19 cumulative incidence, intensive care, and mortality in Italian regions compared to selected European countries
title_sort covid-19 cumulative incidence, intensive care, and mortality in italian regions compared to selected european countries
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7833245/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33130199
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.070
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