When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?()

We carry out some analysis of the daily data on the number of new cases and the number of new deaths by (191) countries as reported to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Our benchmark model is a quadratic time trend model applied to the log of new cases for each country....

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Li, Shaoran, Linton, Oliver
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7834667/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33519027
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.049
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author Li, Shaoran
Linton, Oliver
author_facet Li, Shaoran
Linton, Oliver
author_sort Li, Shaoran
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description We carry out some analysis of the daily data on the number of new cases and the number of new deaths by (191) countries as reported to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Our benchmark model is a quadratic time trend model applied to the log of new cases for each country. We use our model to predict when the peak of the epidemic will arise in terms of new cases or new deaths in each country and the peak level. We also predict how long the number of new daily cases in each country will fall by an order of magnitude. Finally, we also forecast the total number of cases and deaths for each country. We consider two models that link the joint evolution of new cases and new deaths.
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spelling pubmed-78346672021-01-26 When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?() Li, Shaoran Linton, Oliver J Econom Article We carry out some analysis of the daily data on the number of new cases and the number of new deaths by (191) countries as reported to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Our benchmark model is a quadratic time trend model applied to the log of new cases for each country. We use our model to predict when the peak of the epidemic will arise in terms of new cases or new deaths in each country and the peak level. We also predict how long the number of new daily cases in each country will fall by an order of magnitude. Finally, we also forecast the total number of cases and deaths for each country. We consider two models that link the joint evolution of new cases and new deaths. Elsevier B.V. 2021-01 2020-09-08 /pmc/articles/PMC7834667/ /pubmed/33519027 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.049 Text en © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Li, Shaoran
Linton, Oliver
When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?()
title When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?()
title_full When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?()
title_fullStr When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?()
title_full_unstemmed When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?()
title_short When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?()
title_sort when will the covid-19 pandemic peak?()
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7834667/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33519027
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.049
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