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A SIR-type model describing the successive waves of COVID-19

It is well-known that the classical SIR model is unable to make accurate predictions on the course of illnesses such as COVID-19. In this paper, we show that the official data released by the authorities of several countries (Italy, Spain and The USA) regarding the expansion of COVID-19 are compatib...

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Autores principales: Muñoz-Fernández, Gustavo A., Seoane, Jesús M., Seoane-Sepúlveda, Juan B.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7836270/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33519124
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110682
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author Muñoz-Fernández, Gustavo A.
Seoane, Jesús M.
Seoane-Sepúlveda, Juan B.
author_facet Muñoz-Fernández, Gustavo A.
Seoane, Jesús M.
Seoane-Sepúlveda, Juan B.
author_sort Muñoz-Fernández, Gustavo A.
collection PubMed
description It is well-known that the classical SIR model is unable to make accurate predictions on the course of illnesses such as COVID-19. In this paper, we show that the official data released by the authorities of several countries (Italy, Spain and The USA) regarding the expansion of COVID-19 are compatible with a non-autonomous SIR type model with vital dynamics and non-constant population, calibrated according to exponentially decaying infection and death rates. Using this calibration we construct a model whose outcomes for most relevant epidemiological paramenters, such as the number of active cases, cumulative deaths, daily new deaths and daily new cases (among others) fit available real data about the first and successive waves of COVID-19. In addition to this, we also provide predictions on the evolution of this pandemic in Italy and the USA in several plausible scenarios.
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spelling pubmed-78362702021-01-26 A SIR-type model describing the successive waves of COVID-19 Muñoz-Fernández, Gustavo A. Seoane, Jesús M. Seoane-Sepúlveda, Juan B. Chaos Solitons Fractals Article It is well-known that the classical SIR model is unable to make accurate predictions on the course of illnesses such as COVID-19. In this paper, we show that the official data released by the authorities of several countries (Italy, Spain and The USA) regarding the expansion of COVID-19 are compatible with a non-autonomous SIR type model with vital dynamics and non-constant population, calibrated according to exponentially decaying infection and death rates. Using this calibration we construct a model whose outcomes for most relevant epidemiological paramenters, such as the number of active cases, cumulative deaths, daily new deaths and daily new cases (among others) fit available real data about the first and successive waves of COVID-19. In addition to this, we also provide predictions on the evolution of this pandemic in Italy and the USA in several plausible scenarios. Elsevier Ltd. 2021-03 2021-01-14 /pmc/articles/PMC7836270/ /pubmed/33519124 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110682 Text en © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Muñoz-Fernández, Gustavo A.
Seoane, Jesús M.
Seoane-Sepúlveda, Juan B.
A SIR-type model describing the successive waves of COVID-19
title A SIR-type model describing the successive waves of COVID-19
title_full A SIR-type model describing the successive waves of COVID-19
title_fullStr A SIR-type model describing the successive waves of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed A SIR-type model describing the successive waves of COVID-19
title_short A SIR-type model describing the successive waves of COVID-19
title_sort sir-type model describing the successive waves of covid-19
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7836270/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33519124
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110682
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