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Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies

In this article, we study the transmission of COVID-19 in the human population, notably between potential people and infected people of all age groups. Our objective is to reduce the number of infected people, in addition to increasing the number of individuals who recovered from the virus and are p...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Kada, Driss, Kouidere, Abdelfatah, Balatif, Omar, Rachik, Mostafa, Labriji, El Houssine
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7837056/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33519111
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110437
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author Kada, Driss
Kouidere, Abdelfatah
Balatif, Omar
Rachik, Mostafa
Labriji, El Houssine
author_facet Kada, Driss
Kouidere, Abdelfatah
Balatif, Omar
Rachik, Mostafa
Labriji, El Houssine
author_sort Kada, Driss
collection PubMed
description In this article, we study the transmission of COVID-19 in the human population, notably between potential people and infected people of all age groups. Our objective is to reduce the number of infected people, in addition to increasing the number of individuals who recovered from the virus and are protected. We propose a mathematical model with control strategies using two variables of controls that represent respectively, the treatment of patients infected with COVID-19 by subjecting them to quarantine within hospitals and special places and using masks to cover the sensitive body parts. Pontryagin’s Maximum principle is used to characterize the optimal controls and the optimality system is solved by an iterative method. Finally, numerical simulations are presented with controls and without controls. Our results indicate that the implementation of the strategy that combines all the control variables adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO), produces excellent results similar to those achieved on the ground in Morocco.
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spelling pubmed-78370562021-01-26 Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies Kada, Driss Kouidere, Abdelfatah Balatif, Omar Rachik, Mostafa Labriji, El Houssine Chaos Solitons Fractals Article In this article, we study the transmission of COVID-19 in the human population, notably between potential people and infected people of all age groups. Our objective is to reduce the number of infected people, in addition to increasing the number of individuals who recovered from the virus and are protected. We propose a mathematical model with control strategies using two variables of controls that represent respectively, the treatment of patients infected with COVID-19 by subjecting them to quarantine within hospitals and special places and using masks to cover the sensitive body parts. Pontryagin’s Maximum principle is used to characterize the optimal controls and the optimality system is solved by an iterative method. Finally, numerical simulations are presented with controls and without controls. Our results indicate that the implementation of the strategy that combines all the control variables adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO), produces excellent results similar to those achieved on the ground in Morocco. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-12 2020-11-04 /pmc/articles/PMC7837056/ /pubmed/33519111 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110437 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Kada, Driss
Kouidere, Abdelfatah
Balatif, Omar
Rachik, Mostafa
Labriji, El Houssine
Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies
title Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies
title_full Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies
title_fullStr Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies
title_full_unstemmed Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies
title_short Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies
title_sort mathematical modeling of the spread of covid-19 among different age groups in morocco: optimal control approach for intervention strategies
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7837056/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33519111
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110437
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