Different SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes associate with geographic origin and case fatality rates of COVID-19 patients

The current pandemic of COVID-19 is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus for which many variants at the Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) level have now been identified. We show here that different allelic variants among 692 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences display a statistically significant association with geographic origin (p < 0.000001) and COVID-19 case severity (p = 0.016). Geographic variation in itself is associated with both case severity and allelic variation especially in strains from Indian origin (p < 0.000001). Using an new alternative bioinformatics approach we were able to confirm that the presence of the D614G mutation correlates with increased case severity in a sample of 127 sequences from a shared geographic origin in the US (p = 0.018). While leaving open the question on the pathogenesis mechanism involved, this suggests that in specific geographic locales certain genotypes of the virus are more pathogenic than others. We here show that viral genome polymorphisms may have an effect on case severity when other factors are controlled for, but that this effect is swamped out by these other factors when comparing cases across different geographic regions.