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Ground reality versus model-based computation of basic reproductive numbers in epidemics

Computation of basic reproductive numbers is one of the primary goals of epidemic modelers. There are several challenges in such computations, especially when the data from the virus transmission networks are not so easy to collect; this makes model validation almost impossible. We provide a technic...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Srinivasa Rao, Arni S.R., Krantz, Steven G.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Inc. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7839793/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33526950
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmaa.2021.125004
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author Srinivasa Rao, Arni S.R.
Krantz, Steven G.
author_facet Srinivasa Rao, Arni S.R.
Krantz, Steven G.
author_sort Srinivasa Rao, Arni S.R.
collection PubMed
description Computation of basic reproductive numbers is one of the primary goals of epidemic modelers. There are several challenges in such computations, especially when the data from the virus transmission networks are not so easy to collect; this makes model validation almost impossible. We provide a technical comment on the precautions to be taken while computing model-based basic reproductive numbers so that the ground realities of such computation are maintained. Basic reproductive numbers need to be adjusted retrospectively to compensate for reporting errors within the epidemic spread networks. Such an adjustment would lead to revised pandemic preparedness and mitigation plans.
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spelling pubmed-78397932021-01-28 Ground reality versus model-based computation of basic reproductive numbers in epidemics Srinivasa Rao, Arni S.R. Krantz, Steven G. J Math Anal Appl Article Computation of basic reproductive numbers is one of the primary goals of epidemic modelers. There are several challenges in such computations, especially when the data from the virus transmission networks are not so easy to collect; this makes model validation almost impossible. We provide a technical comment on the precautions to be taken while computing model-based basic reproductive numbers so that the ground realities of such computation are maintained. Basic reproductive numbers need to be adjusted retrospectively to compensate for reporting errors within the epidemic spread networks. Such an adjustment would lead to revised pandemic preparedness and mitigation plans. Elsevier Inc. 2022-10-15 2021-01-27 /pmc/articles/PMC7839793/ /pubmed/33526950 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmaa.2021.125004 Text en © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Srinivasa Rao, Arni S.R.
Krantz, Steven G.
Ground reality versus model-based computation of basic reproductive numbers in epidemics
title Ground reality versus model-based computation of basic reproductive numbers in epidemics
title_full Ground reality versus model-based computation of basic reproductive numbers in epidemics
title_fullStr Ground reality versus model-based computation of basic reproductive numbers in epidemics
title_full_unstemmed Ground reality versus model-based computation of basic reproductive numbers in epidemics
title_short Ground reality versus model-based computation of basic reproductive numbers in epidemics
title_sort ground reality versus model-based computation of basic reproductive numbers in epidemics
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7839793/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33526950
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmaa.2021.125004
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