How inter-state amity and animosity complement migration networks to drive refugee flows: A multi-layer network analysis, 1991–2016

What drives the formation and evolution of the global refugee flow network over time? Refugee flows in particular are widely explained as the result of pursuits for physical security, with recent research adding geopolitical considerations for why states accept refugees. We refine these arguments and classify them into explanations of people following existing migration networks and networks of inter-state amity and animosity. We also observe that structural network interdependencies may bias models of migration flows generally and refugee flows specifically. To account for these dependencies, we use a dyadic hypothesis testing method—Multiple Regression- Quadratic Assignment Procedure (MR-QAP). We estimate MR-QAP models for each year during the 1991–2016 time period. K-means clustering analysis with visualization supported by multi-dimensional scaling allows us to identify categories of variables and years. We find support for the categorization of drivers of refugee flows into migration networks and inter-state amity and animosity. This includes key nuance that, while contiguity has maintained a positive influence on refugee flows, the magnitude of that influence has declined over time. Strategic rivalry also has a positive influence on refugee flows via dyad-level correlations and its effect on the structure of the global refugee flow network. In addition, we find clear support for the global refugee flow network shifting after the Arab Spring in 2011, and drivers of refugee flows shifting after 2012. Our findings contribute to the study of refugee flows, international migration, alliance and rivalry relationships, and the application of social network analysis to international relations.