Nomogram based on homogeneous and heterogeneous associated factors for predicting distant metastases in patients with colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND: The identification of the homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors for different types of metastases in colorectal cancer (CRC) may shed light on the aetiology and help individualize prophylactic treatment. The present study characterized the incidence differences and identified the homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors associated with distant metastases in CRC. METHODS: CRC patients registered in the SEER database between 2010 and 2016 were included in this study. Logistic regression was used to analyse homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors for the occurrence of different types of metastases. Nomograms were constructed to predict the risk for developing metastases, and the performance was quantitatively assessed using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve. RESULTS: A total of 204,595 eligible CRC patients were included in our study, and 17.07% of them had distant metastases. The overall incidences of liver metastases, lung metastases, bone metastases, and brain metastases were 15.34%, 5.22%, 1.26%, and 0.29%, respectively. The incidence of distant metastases differed by age, gender, and the original CRC sites. Poorly differentiated grade, more lymphatic metastasis, higher carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and different metastatic organs were all positively associated with four patterns of metastases. In contrast, age, sex, race, insurance status, position, and T stage were heterogeneously associated with metastases. The calibration and ROC curves exhibited good performance for predicting distant metastases. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of distant metastases in CRC exhibited distinct differences, and the patients had homogeneous and heterogeneous associated risk factors. Although limited risk factors were included in the present study, the established nomogram showed good prediction performance. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12957-021-02140-6.