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An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States

The number of COVID-19 infections is key for accurately monitoring the pandemics. However, due to differential testing policies, asymptomatic individuals and limited large-scale testing availability, it is challenging to detect all cases. Seroprevalence studies aim to address this gap by retrospecti...

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Autores principales: Sánchez-Romero, Miguel, di Lego, Vanessa, Prskawetz, Alexia, L. Queiroz, Bernardo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7842943/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33508030
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245845
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author Sánchez-Romero, Miguel
di Lego, Vanessa
Prskawetz, Alexia
L. Queiroz, Bernardo
author_facet Sánchez-Romero, Miguel
di Lego, Vanessa
Prskawetz, Alexia
L. Queiroz, Bernardo
author_sort Sánchez-Romero, Miguel
collection PubMed
description The number of COVID-19 infections is key for accurately monitoring the pandemics. However, due to differential testing policies, asymptomatic individuals and limited large-scale testing availability, it is challenging to detect all cases. Seroprevalence studies aim to address this gap by retrospectively assessing the number of infections, but they can be expensive and time-intensive, limiting their use to specific population subgroups. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach that combines estimated (1) infection fatality rates (IFR) using a Bayesian melding SEIR model with (2) reported case-fatality rates (CFR) in order to indirectly estimate the fraction of people ever infected (from the total population) and detected (from the ever infected). We apply the technique to the U.S. due to their remarkable regional diversity and because they count with almost a quarter of all global confirmed cases and deaths. We obtain that the IFR varies from 1.25% (0.39–2.16%, 90% CI) in Florida, the most aged population, to 0.69% in Utah (0.21–1.30%, 90% CI), the youngest population. By September 8, 2020, we estimate that at least five states have already a fraction of people ever infected between 10% and 20% (New Jersey, New York, Massachussets, Connecticut, and District of Columbia). The state with the highest estimated fraction of people ever infected is New Jersey with 17.3% (10.0, 55.8, 90% CI). Moreover, our results indicate that with a probability of 90 percent the fraction of detected people among the ever infected since the beginning of the epidemic has been less than 50% in 15 out of the 20 states analyzed in this paper. Our approach can be a valuable tool that complements seroprevalence studies and indicates how efficient have testing policies been since the beginning of the outbreak.
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spelling pubmed-78429432021-02-04 An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States Sánchez-Romero, Miguel di Lego, Vanessa Prskawetz, Alexia L. Queiroz, Bernardo PLoS One Research Article The number of COVID-19 infections is key for accurately monitoring the pandemics. However, due to differential testing policies, asymptomatic individuals and limited large-scale testing availability, it is challenging to detect all cases. Seroprevalence studies aim to address this gap by retrospectively assessing the number of infections, but they can be expensive and time-intensive, limiting their use to specific population subgroups. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach that combines estimated (1) infection fatality rates (IFR) using a Bayesian melding SEIR model with (2) reported case-fatality rates (CFR) in order to indirectly estimate the fraction of people ever infected (from the total population) and detected (from the ever infected). We apply the technique to the U.S. due to their remarkable regional diversity and because they count with almost a quarter of all global confirmed cases and deaths. We obtain that the IFR varies from 1.25% (0.39–2.16%, 90% CI) in Florida, the most aged population, to 0.69% in Utah (0.21–1.30%, 90% CI), the youngest population. By September 8, 2020, we estimate that at least five states have already a fraction of people ever infected between 10% and 20% (New Jersey, New York, Massachussets, Connecticut, and District of Columbia). The state with the highest estimated fraction of people ever infected is New Jersey with 17.3% (10.0, 55.8, 90% CI). Moreover, our results indicate that with a probability of 90 percent the fraction of detected people among the ever infected since the beginning of the epidemic has been less than 50% in 15 out of the 20 states analyzed in this paper. Our approach can be a valuable tool that complements seroprevalence studies and indicates how efficient have testing policies been since the beginning of the outbreak. Public Library of Science 2021-01-28 /pmc/articles/PMC7842943/ /pubmed/33508030 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245845 Text en © 2021 Sánchez-Romero et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Sánchez-Romero, Miguel
di Lego, Vanessa
Prskawetz, Alexia
L. Queiroz, Bernardo
An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States
title An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States
title_full An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States
title_fullStr An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States
title_full_unstemmed An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States
title_short An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States
title_sort indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with covid-19: an application to the united states
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7842943/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33508030
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245845
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