Cargando…
Simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown
Lockdown procedures have been proven successful in mitigating the spread of the viruses in this COVID-19 pandemic, but they also have devastating impact on the economy. We use a modified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with time dependent infection rate to simulate how the infection...
Autor principal: | |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
The Physical Society of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Published by Elsevier B.V.
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7843084/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cjph.2021.01.007 |
_version_ | 1783644072002453504 |
---|---|
author | Chao, Sung-Po |
author_facet | Chao, Sung-Po |
author_sort | Chao, Sung-Po |
collection | PubMed |
description | Lockdown procedures have been proven successful in mitigating the spread of the viruses in this COVID-19 pandemic, but they also have devastating impact on the economy. We use a modified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with time dependent infection rate to simulate how the infection is spread under lockdown. The economic cost due to the loss of workforce and incurred medical expenses is evaluated with a simple model. We find the best strategy, meaning the smallest economic cost for the entire course of the pandemic, is to keep the strict lockdown as long as possible. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7843084 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | The Physical Society of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Published by Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-78430842021-01-29 Simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown Chao, Sung-Po Chin J Phys Article Lockdown procedures have been proven successful in mitigating the spread of the viruses in this COVID-19 pandemic, but they also have devastating impact on the economy. We use a modified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with time dependent infection rate to simulate how the infection is spread under lockdown. The economic cost due to the loss of workforce and incurred medical expenses is evaluated with a simple model. We find the best strategy, meaning the smallest economic cost for the entire course of the pandemic, is to keep the strict lockdown as long as possible. The Physical Society of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021-04 2021-01-28 /pmc/articles/PMC7843084/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cjph.2021.01.007 Text en © 2021 The Physical Society of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Chao, Sung-Po Simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown |
title | Simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown |
title_full | Simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown |
title_fullStr | Simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown |
title_full_unstemmed | Simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown |
title_short | Simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown |
title_sort | simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7843084/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cjph.2021.01.007 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT chaosungpo simplifiedmodelonthetimingofeasingthelockdown |