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Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics

Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual’s contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis...

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Autores principales: Schaber, Kathryn L., Perkins, T. Alex, Lloyd, Alun L., Waller, Lance A., Kitron, Uriel, Paz-Soldan, Valerie A., Elder, John P., Rothman, Alan L., Civitello, David J., Elson, William H., Morrison, Amy C., Scott, Thomas W., Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7845972/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33465065
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008627
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author Schaber, Kathryn L.
Perkins, T. Alex
Lloyd, Alun L.
Waller, Lance A.
Kitron, Uriel
Paz-Soldan, Valerie A.
Elder, John P.
Rothman, Alan L.
Civitello, David J.
Elson, William H.
Morrison, Amy C.
Scott, Thomas W.
Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M.
author_facet Schaber, Kathryn L.
Perkins, T. Alex
Lloyd, Alun L.
Waller, Lance A.
Kitron, Uriel
Paz-Soldan, Valerie A.
Elder, John P.
Rothman, Alan L.
Civitello, David J.
Elson, William H.
Morrison, Amy C.
Scott, Thomas W.
Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M.
author_sort Schaber, Kathryn L.
collection PubMed
description Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual’s contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual’s positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual’s biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (>10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers.
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spelling pubmed-78459722021-02-04 Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics Schaber, Kathryn L. Perkins, T. Alex Lloyd, Alun L. Waller, Lance A. Kitron, Uriel Paz-Soldan, Valerie A. Elder, John P. Rothman, Alan L. Civitello, David J. Elson, William H. Morrison, Amy C. Scott, Thomas W. Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M. PLoS Comput Biol Research Article Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual’s contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual’s positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual’s biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (>10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers. Public Library of Science 2021-01-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7845972/ /pubmed/33465065 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008627 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) public domain dedication.
spellingShingle Research Article
Schaber, Kathryn L.
Perkins, T. Alex
Lloyd, Alun L.
Waller, Lance A.
Kitron, Uriel
Paz-Soldan, Valerie A.
Elder, John P.
Rothman, Alan L.
Civitello, David J.
Elson, William H.
Morrison, Amy C.
Scott, Thomas W.
Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M.
Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics
title Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics
title_full Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics
title_fullStr Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics
title_short Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics
title_sort disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7845972/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33465065
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008627
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