Predicting hyperprogressive disease in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with anti-programmed cell death 1 therapy

BACKGROUND: Hyperprogressive disease (HPD) is a new progressive pattern in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) inhibitors. We aimed to investigate risk factors associated with HPD in advanced HCC patients undergoing anti-PD-1 therapy. METHODS: A total of 69 patients treated with anti-PD-1 therapy between March 2017 and January 2020 were included. HPD was determined according to the time to treatment failure, tumour growth rate, and tumour growth rate ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify clinical variables significantly associated with HPD. A risk model was constructed based on clinical variables with prognostic significance for HPD. FINDINGS: Overall, 10 (14·49%) had HPD. Haemoglobin level, portal vein tumour thrombus, and Child-Pugh score were significantly associated with HPD. The risk model had an area under the curve of 0·931 (95% confidence interval, 0·844–1·000). Patients with HPD had a significantly shorter overall survival (OS) than that of the patients with non-HPD (p < 0·001). However, there was no significant difference in OS between PD (progressive disease) patients with and without HPD (p = 0·05). INTERPRETATION: We identified three clinical variables as risk factors for HPD, providing an opportunity to aid the pre-treatment evaluation of the risk of HPD in patients treated with immunotherapy. FUNDING: This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81571664, 81871323, and 81801665); National Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2018B030311024); Scientific Research General Project of Guangzhou Science Technology and Innovation Commission (201707010,328); and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2016M600145).