A systematic review and realist synthesis on toilet paper hoarding: COVID or not COVID, that is the question

OBJECTIVE: To explore whether the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is associated with toilet paper hoarding and to assess which risk factors are associated with the risk of toilet paper hoarding. DESIGN: A systematic review and realist review were conducted. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus and PsycINFO were searched (systematic review). PubMed, pre-prints and grey literature were also searched (realist review). The databases were searched from inception until October 2020. STUDY SELECTION: There were no restrictions on the study design. OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: For the systematic review, toilet paper hoarding was the main outcome, and pathological use of toilet paper was the secondary outcome. For the realist review, the context-mechanisms-outcome (CMO) scheme included the COVID-19 pandemic (context), four proposed mechanisms, and one outcome (toilet paper hoarding). The four potential mechanisms were (1) gastrointestinal mechanisms of COVID-19 (e.g. diarrhoea), (2) social cognitive biases, (3) stress-related factors (mental illnesses, personality traits) and (4) cultural aspects (e.g. differences between countries). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: All studies of human populations were considered (including general population studies and clinical studies of patients suffering from mental health problems). RESULTS: The systematic review identified 14 studies (eight studies for the main outcome, six studies for the secondary outcome). Three surveys identified the role of the COVID-19 threat in toilet paper hoarding in the general population. One study pointed to an association between a personality trait (conscientiousness) and toilet paper buying and stockpiling as well as an additional significant indirect effect of emotionality through the perceived threat of COVID-19 on toilet paper buying and stockpiling. Six case reports of pathological use of toilet paper were also identified, although none of them were associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The realist review suggested that of all the mechanisms, social cognitive biases and a bandwagon effect were potential contributors to toilet paper hoarding in the general population. The stressful situation (COVID-19 pandemic) and some personality traits (conscientiousness) were found to be associated with toilet paper hoarding. Cultural differences were also identified, with relatively substantial effects of toilet paper hoarding in several Asian regions (Australia, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with a worldwide increase in toilet paper hoarding. Social media and social cognitive biases are major contributors and might explain some differences in toilet paper hoarding between countries. Other mental health-related factors, such as the stressful situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, fear of contagion, or particular personality traits (conscientiousness), are likely to be involved. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020182308