One Institution’s evaluation of family medicine residency applicant data for academic predictors of success

BACKGROUND: Family Medicine residencies are navigating recruitment in a changing environment. The consolidation of accreditation for allopathic and osteopathic programs, the high volume of applicants, and the forthcoming transition of the United States Medical Licensing Exam (USMLE) Step 1 to pass/fail reporting all contribute. This retrospective cohort study evaluated which components of a student’s academic history best predict readiness for residency. METHODS: In 2020, we analyzed applicant data and initial residency data for program graduates at a single residency program between 2013 and 2020. This included undergraduate education characteristics, medical school academic performance, medical school academic problems (including professionalism), STEP exams, location of medical school, and assessments during the first 6 months of residency. Of 110 matriculating residents, assessment data was available for 97 (88%). RESULTS: Pre-matriculation USMLE data had a positive correlation with initial American Board of Family Medicine (ABFM) in-training exams. Pre-matriculation exam data did not have a positive correlation with resident assessment across any of the six Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) competency domains. A defined cohort of residents with a history of academic struggles during medical school or failure on a USMLE exam performed statistically similarly to residents with no such history on assessments across the six ACGME competency domains. CONCLUSIONS: Applicants with a history of academic problems perform similarly in the clinical environment to those without. While a positive correlation between pre-matriculation exams and the ABFM in-training exam was found, this did not extend to clinical assessments across the ACGME competency domains.