Cargando…

The Planning Fallacy in the Orthopedic Operating Room

The planning fallacy posits that humans tend to underestimate the amount of time needed to complete a project and that greater complexity results in a larger difference in that estimation. If this phenomenon is present in the orthopedic operating room, it could lead to negative impacts on patients,...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Katt, Brian M, Tawfik, Amr, Lau, Vincent, Padua, Fortunato, Fletcher, Daniel, Stamos, Bruce, Aita, Daren, Conte, Evan, Saxena, Arjun, Hornstein, Joshua
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Cureus 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7854319/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33552753
http://dx.doi.org/10.7759/cureus.12433
_version_ 1783646065675730944
author Katt, Brian M
Tawfik, Amr
Lau, Vincent
Padua, Fortunato
Fletcher, Daniel
Stamos, Bruce
Aita, Daren
Conte, Evan
Saxena, Arjun
Hornstein, Joshua
author_facet Katt, Brian M
Tawfik, Amr
Lau, Vincent
Padua, Fortunato
Fletcher, Daniel
Stamos, Bruce
Aita, Daren
Conte, Evan
Saxena, Arjun
Hornstein, Joshua
author_sort Katt, Brian M
collection PubMed
description The planning fallacy posits that humans tend to underestimate the amount of time needed to complete a project and that greater complexity results in a larger difference in that estimation. If this phenomenon is present in the orthopedic operating room, it could lead to negative impacts on patients, their families, and physicians themselves. Nine fellowship-trained orthopedic surgeons at one institution were asked to give an estimate of their operative and total room times over the course of three months. Over 759 cases, the surgeons underestimated the total room times by 17.3% (p = 0.034) but did not underestimate their operative times (p = 0.590). The surgeons improved estimation of their operative time for all cases from 13.6 to 10.9 minutes of their actual time (p = 0.031) by comparing the absolute difference for the surgeons’ first 25% to the last 25% of cases. Procedures performed at the hospital underestimated operative and total room times by 8.9% and 7.4% compared to the ambulatory center, which overestimated operative times by 6.0% and underestimated total room times by 3.8% (p < 0.001). We found that the planning fallacy does exist in certain situations within the orthopedic operating room.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7854319
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Cureus
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-78543192021-02-04 The Planning Fallacy in the Orthopedic Operating Room Katt, Brian M Tawfik, Amr Lau, Vincent Padua, Fortunato Fletcher, Daniel Stamos, Bruce Aita, Daren Conte, Evan Saxena, Arjun Hornstein, Joshua Cureus Orthopedics The planning fallacy posits that humans tend to underestimate the amount of time needed to complete a project and that greater complexity results in a larger difference in that estimation. If this phenomenon is present in the orthopedic operating room, it could lead to negative impacts on patients, their families, and physicians themselves. Nine fellowship-trained orthopedic surgeons at one institution were asked to give an estimate of their operative and total room times over the course of three months. Over 759 cases, the surgeons underestimated the total room times by 17.3% (p = 0.034) but did not underestimate their operative times (p = 0.590). The surgeons improved estimation of their operative time for all cases from 13.6 to 10.9 minutes of their actual time (p = 0.031) by comparing the absolute difference for the surgeons’ first 25% to the last 25% of cases. Procedures performed at the hospital underestimated operative and total room times by 8.9% and 7.4% compared to the ambulatory center, which overestimated operative times by 6.0% and underestimated total room times by 3.8% (p < 0.001). We found that the planning fallacy does exist in certain situations within the orthopedic operating room. Cureus 2021-01-02 /pmc/articles/PMC7854319/ /pubmed/33552753 http://dx.doi.org/10.7759/cureus.12433 Text en Copyright © 2021, Katt et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Orthopedics
Katt, Brian M
Tawfik, Amr
Lau, Vincent
Padua, Fortunato
Fletcher, Daniel
Stamos, Bruce
Aita, Daren
Conte, Evan
Saxena, Arjun
Hornstein, Joshua
The Planning Fallacy in the Orthopedic Operating Room
title The Planning Fallacy in the Orthopedic Operating Room
title_full The Planning Fallacy in the Orthopedic Operating Room
title_fullStr The Planning Fallacy in the Orthopedic Operating Room
title_full_unstemmed The Planning Fallacy in the Orthopedic Operating Room
title_short The Planning Fallacy in the Orthopedic Operating Room
title_sort planning fallacy in the orthopedic operating room
topic Orthopedics
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7854319/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33552753
http://dx.doi.org/10.7759/cureus.12433
work_keys_str_mv AT kattbrianm theplanningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT tawfikamr theplanningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT lauvincent theplanningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT paduafortunato theplanningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT fletcherdaniel theplanningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT stamosbruce theplanningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT aitadaren theplanningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT conteevan theplanningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT saxenaarjun theplanningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT hornsteinjoshua theplanningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT kattbrianm planningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT tawfikamr planningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT lauvincent planningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT paduafortunato planningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT fletcherdaniel planningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT stamosbruce planningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT aitadaren planningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT conteevan planningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT saxenaarjun planningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom
AT hornsteinjoshua planningfallacyintheorthopedicoperatingroom