Association of ultra-processed food consumption with cardiovascular mortality in the US population: long-term results from a large prospective multicenter study

BACKGROUND: Ultra-processed foods have now become dominant in the global food system. Whether their consumption is associated with cardiovascular mortality remains controversial. Moreover, data on ultra-processed foods and cardiovascular outcomes are scarce in the US population. We aimed to examine the association of ultra-processed food consumption with cardiovascular mortality in a US population. METHODS: A population-based cohort of 91,891 participants was identified from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Dietary data were collected through a validated 137-item food frequency questionnaire. Ultra-processed foods were defined by the NOVA classification. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for cardiovascular mortality. Restricted cubic spline regression was used to test nonlinearity. Subgroup analyses were conducted to identify the potential effect modifiers. RESULTS: After an average follow-up of 13.5 years (1,236,049.2 person-years), 5490 cardiovascular deaths were documented, including 3985 heart disease deaths and 1126 cerebrovascular deaths. In the fully adjusted model, participants in the highest vs. the lowest quintiles of ultra-processed food consumption had higher risks of death from cardiovascular disease (HR(quintile 5 vs. 1), 1.50; 95% CI, 1.36–1.64) and heart disease (HR(quintile 5 vs. 1), 1.68; 95% CI, 1.50–1.87) but not cerebrovascular disease (HR(quintile 5 vs. 1), 0.94; 95% CI, 0.76–1.17). A nonlinear dose–response pattern was observed for overall cardiovascular and heart disease mortality (all P(nonlinearity) < 0.05), with a threshold effect observed at ultra-processed food consumption of 2.4 servings/day and 2.3 servings/day, respectively; below the thresholds, no significant associations were observed for these two outcomes. Subgroup analyses showed that the increased risks of mortality from ultra-processed foods were significantly higher in women than in men (all P(interaction) < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: High consumption of ultra-processed foods is associated with increased risks of overall cardiovascular and heart disease mortality. These harmful associations may be more pronounced in women. Our findings need to be confirmed in other populations and settings. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12966-021-01081-3.